Week 2 in the NFL, who’s excited? The NFL has some of, if not the sharpest lines, in all of sports betting; and that includes their player prop bets. With that said, let’s talk props.
There’s so many great matchups this week, we get two Monday night games, six divisional matchups, and we finally got to witness a prime time over on Thursday night.
Hopefully the Thursday night game was a sign of things to come this Sunday.
Check out my favorite props, and best bets for Week 2.
Amon-Ra St. Brown o74.5 Rec Yards (-120)
Not much needs to be said about Amon-Ra, he’s just really good at football. Week 1 saw him pull in 6 of his 9 targets for 71 yards and TD; in a game where Goff kind of struggled to connect with his receivers.
Goff finished the game with 253 yards, 1 TD, with a completion rate of 62%. It was the first game of the NFL season and it was an ugly one point win for the Lions on the road.
Goff’struggles on the road were well documented last year.
He played all 17 games and averaged 274 yards/game, threw 35 times/game, completion rate of 65% and threw 23 TDs inside Ford Field. Compare that to 245 yards/game and just 6 TDs outside of the Motor City.
So who directly benefits from Goff’s stellar play at home? Amon-Ra St. Brown, his favorite target.
St. Brown last season, at home: averaged 83.8 yards/game, 7.3 rec/game, scored 6 TDs, all on 10 targets/game. While on the road these numbers drop to 61.4/6/0 TD/8 respectively.
Oh, and the Seahawks just let Tutu Atwell and Puka Nacua go for 119 yards EACH, and a combined 16 receptions. Yeah, that isn’t a typo.
The entire state of Michigan is going to be rockin’ today. There isn’t a blue ski mask left to be purchased in the city of Detroit.
They come into their home opener, having beaten then defending Champs IN Kansas City, the players and fans alike are fired up. The atmosphere should be something special, make sure you tune in.
Amon-Ra St. Brown o74.5 Rec Yards (-120) via Bovada
Bonus Bet: Amon-Ra St. Brown 2+ Touchdowns (+500)
Cole Kmet o30.5 Rec Yards (-110)
There was so much hype surrounding Justin Fields’ and the Bears coming into Week 1, and it all came crashing down in front of their own home crowd. Tough being a Bears’ fan.
Kmet was one of the lone bright spots of Week 1, pulling in 5 receptions on 7 targets for 44 yards. We’ve seen flashes of the connection between Kmet + Fields’ but with Fields still struggling to find his feet as a passer, they have yet to unlock their full potential.
Kmet was on the field for 97% of the Bears’ offensive snaps, 6% higher than DJ and 14% higher than Mooney. He was tied for the team lead in target share, 18.9% with a 71% catch rate.
On the other side of the ball, the Buccs gave up 344 pass yards in Week 1; including 11 rec and 67 yards to TEs. They also gave up the 6th most fantasy points to the position last year, so it’s pretty on brand for this Buccs defense.
He’s also averaging 4 rec/game and 38.8 yards/game in his L10 games with Justin Fields, on an average of 5 targets/game. He’s a staple in this offense, and a bit of security blanket for Fields.
It’s too early to give up on the Bears, trust in Justin Fields and Cole Kmet one more time.
Cole Kmet o30.5 Rec Yards (-110) via Bovada
Bonus Bet: Cole Kmet Anytime Touchdown (+325)
Ja’Marr Chase Anytime Touchdown (+105)
Chase and the entire Bengals offense were abysmal in Week 1. They were one of three teams held out of the endzone last week, the other two? The Giants and the Texans.
It was a road game against a tough Browns’s defense, especially that front 7. Burrow was sacked just twice but was under constant pressure all game.
This Ravens defense is currently without Pro-Bowl CB, Marlon Humphrey and starting FS Marcus Williams. They also gave up 137 rec yards and 12 receptions to Robert Woods and Nico Collins last week.
Ja’Marr saw 9 targets last game but pulled in just 5 for 39 yards. Last season, in Cincy, Chase averaged 107 yards/game and had 5 TDs in just 6 home games.
He’s played the Ravens’ five times in his career (including playoffs) and scored in three different games, averaging 8 rec/game and 109 yards/game. And he had 9 TDs last year in just 12 games.
Bengals in a bounce back spot, someone’s gotta get into the endzone right?
Ja’Marr Chase Anytime Touchdown (+105) via Bovada
Bonus Bet: Ja’Marr Chase 2+ Touchdowns (+550)
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