The NFL Divisional Round begins this Saturday in Arrowhead as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Houston Texans for some postseason football. CJ Stroud has now won a playoff game in each of his first two seasons as a starter, but now he has to do the impossible. Something only two other QBs have done successfully: Beat Mahomes and the Chiefs in the playoffs.
These teams already played once in Kansas City in Week 16, as the Chiefs took down Houston by 8, winning 27-19. The Texans failed to cover the 3 point spread and the total went over 42.5 quite comfortably. Could things be different this time around?
Mahomes and the Chiefs starters haven’t played a real game since Christmas Day in Pittsburgh. They’ve had nearly a month off to get as healthy as possible, but could sitting for so long come back to bite them against a team that has been battling the past few weeks? Let’s dive in and find out.
Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs: AFC Divisional Playoffs
Pacheco and the Chiefs are back in action this Saturday
Matchup Information – Texans vs Chiefs
- Venue & Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
- Date: Saturday, January 18th, 2025
- Kick Off: 4:30pm Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN
Betting Odds
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Spread
- Texans +9 (-115)
- Chiefs -9 (-105)
Money Line
- Texans +410
- Chiefs -515
Total
- Over 41.5 (-110)
- Under 41.5 (-110)
CJ Stroud and Texans Come to Arrowhead Once Again
Can Stroud and Houston take down the Chiefs on the road?
CJ Stroud and company find themselves back in Arrowhead, but with a couple of big question marks. Starting RB Joe Mixon and LB Azeez Al-Shaair are both listed as questionable for this football game. If neither are able to go, both sides of the ball take a huge hit for Houston. Without Mixon, the Texans will heavily rely on Stroud’s arm and the wide receiving core to step up. John Metchie and Robert Woods will need to fill their roles, as Trent McDuffie will likely be shadowing Nico Collins all game long.
As for the Texans’ defense, they’ve only allowed 26 points over the last two weeks, but slowing down the Chiefs is hard to do. Despite Kansas City only reaching 30 points twice this season, you typically need to score to beat the Chiefs. Houston will need to be aggressive on offense and shoot for putting up 24-28 points if they want to win this playoff game.
However, both of these defenses are rock solid. It’s easy to talk about these offenses with Stroud and Mahomes leading the charge, but both defenses are Top 11 in scoring and Top 8 in yards allowed per game. I expect points to be at a premium in this game on Saturday, but ultimately, the Chiefs will find a way to win.
Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Best Bets
Back the Chiefs to win a close one this Saturday
Houston vs Kansas City Prediction: Chiefs Win, Texans Cover, Under 41.5
Best Bet: Chiefs to Win by 1-6 (+300) BetOnline
At 3-1 odds, I believe this is the best bet on the board. The Chiefs don’t necessarily cover spreads but they win games. Despite their 15-2 record, Kansas City was just 8-9 ATS this year, including covered just 3 of their final 11 contests. This weekend, in what I expect to be a low scoring ball game, give me the Texans to keep this one close.
If you are looking to back a team on the spread, I would advise it be Houston, especially if this climbs to double digits by kickoff. I don’t see Andy Reid opening the entire playbook just yet, as he and the Chiefs are planning on two more games after this one. Kansas City will do enough to win, keep their audience entertained, but I don’t see this one getting out of hand. They need to save some tricks for the Conference Championship next week.
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