In East Rutherford, New Jersey, a Tyrod Taylor-led New York Jets squad will host Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins. At first glance, this matchup might not jump off the page. But when you consider that Miami has won four of its last five games and the Jets have taken three of their past five, things suddenly get a lot more intriguing.
Which quarterback will guide his team to another win? Let’s dig into this division battle with my New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins preview and picks.
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New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins Preview & Best Bet
How will Tua fare in the cold weather climate on Sunday?
Jets vs Dolphins Preview
The New York Jets are coming off a last-second, game-winning field goal against the Falcons last Sunday, pulling out a 27-24 victory. Veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor completed 19 of 33 passes for 172 yards with one touchdown, no turnovers, and added 44 rushing yards.
NICK FOLK GAME-WINNING 56-YARD FIELD GOAL @nyjets pic.twitter.com/b6RHw7q1ka
— NFL (@NFL) November 30, 2025
He should be able to play just as well – if not better – against this Miami defense. Even though the Dolphins keep finding ways to win, their defense remains a liability. They sit 26th in both EPA per play and success rate allowed, and they give up the fourth-most yards per play (5.7).
Miami has rattled off three straight wins, but two of those came against the Saints and Commanders. The win over Buffalo was impressive, no question, but the other two don’t exactly move the needle.
The Dolphins are finally playing the way they were expected to, particularly on offense. Funny enough, though, that success hasn’t come because of Tagovailoa. During their win streak, he’s averaged fewer than 14 completions and 167 passing yards per game, with two touchdowns and three interceptions.
The engine of this offense has been running back De’Von Achane. Over the past three games, he’s rushed for 428 yards (143 per game) with three touchdowns, while adding 11 catches for 96 yards. He’s been the identity of this offense.
Can Miami rely on Achane to keep carrying the load at this level? To a degree, yes – I’m still expecting a strong game from him. But relative to the standard he’s set the last few weeks, I think regression hits here.
As poor as the Jets have looked most of the year, they’re finally steering in the right direction under first-year head coach Aaron Glenn – and don’t forget, Glenn is a former defensive coordinator. His influence is starting to show. The Jets now rank eighth in overall success rate and rush success rate, and 12th in dropback success rate. Achane will get his chances, but this is a much tougher matchup than he’s faced lately.
That puts more pressure on Tua to step up – and that’s where things get tricky. The southpaw has historically struggled in cold weather, posting an astonishing 0-7 record in games played under 46°F. The forecast calls for temperatures in the low 40s to upper 30s.
Will that outweigh the fact that he’s 6-0 straight up and 4-2 ATS against the Jets, though?
I’m not usually a trends guy, but the weather matters here. It’s clear Tua struggles in colder environments, as do many teams accustomed to playing in Miami’s climate. Pair that with his recent ineffectiveness as a passer and the fact that he’s facing an improving Jets defense, and it becomes tough to justify laying points with this road team.
New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins Best Bet
That leads me to taking +3 (-115) with Tyrod Taylor and the New York Jets.
This game should be a pick’em, or maybe give slight favoritism to the visitors, but Miami should not be laying on the key number of -3. Aaron Glenn has his team playing more inspired, Taylor has proven to be the better arm than Fields, and they’re facing a Dolphins team that still features plenty of flaws.
This won’t be the game you showcase on the big screen in your living room, but that’s fine. We’ll be looking to showcase a winner on the Jets covering +3.
Best Bet: New York Jets +3 (-115)
NFL Record: 75-58-1 (+8.06 units)
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