New York Jets vs Denver Broncos: Let’s get international with a deep dive into the London Game between the Jets and Broncos. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30 a.m. ET at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
The Broncos opened as 6.5-point favorites, but are now listed at -7.5. The total has also ticked up from 41.5 to 43.5.
The 0-5 Jets are still searching for their first win of the season – can it happen overseas against the surging Broncos? I’ll tell you with my New York Jets vs Denver Broncos prediction and picks.
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New York Jets vs Denver Broncos NFL Betting Insights
Can Justin Fields get the Jets their first win of the season?
Awful Aaron (Glenn): With each passing week, things keep getting worse for first-year head coach Aaron Glenn and the Jets. Not only have the Jets failed to secure their first win, but they’ve also failed to establish any defensive identity – which is supposed to be Glenn’s specialty as a former defensive coordinator.
New York was once considered a top-tier defense, but now sits 31st in points allowed per game (31.4), 29th in EPA per play and 26th in yards per play allowed (5.7). To top it off, the Jets are the only team in NFL history to start 0-5 without recording a single takeaway. That’s beyond inexcusable.
New York wasn’t expected to be a playoff contender by any stretch of the imagination, so there wasn’t too much pressure on Glenn in his first year. But with how bad things have been, he shouldn’t feel a strong sense of job security any longer.
It also doesn’t help when his starting quarterback is Justin Fields. Some people still refuse to believe he isn’t a starting-caliber player in this league. He’s completed 67% of his passes for 754 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions, plus 204 rushing yards and three scores on the ground. To a stat-watcher, those numbers might suggest he isn’t the problem. But what those people fail to realize is that most of his production comes in the fourth quarter when the game is already out of reach.
Justin Fields is 29 of 44 for 248 yards with 3 TD and 0 INTs passing in the fourth quarter of games this season. That’s 32% of his yards and 75% of his TDs (all but one).
– 16/22, 132, 2 TD yesterday
– 9/13, 116, TD vs Dolphins
– 0/2 vs Bills (injured)
– 4/7, 45 yards vs Pitt…— Connor Hughes (@Connor_J_Hughes) October 6, 2025
Plus, Fields is an astonishing 0-26 as a starter when opponents score 21 or more points.
Defenses aren’t scared of him. He’s incapable of progressing beyond his first read, can’t consistently or accurately complete the deep ball and settles for shorter, chunk plays. Opponents know all they need to do is contain his running ability and give him cushion underneath. He’s averaging just 7.3 air yards, which ranks 25th, and he sits 24th in adjusted EPA per play among 34 qualified quarterbacks this season.
Fields, Glenn and this defense are at the bottom of the barrel, and there appears to be no hope in sight.
Booming Broncos: Booming Broncos: Denver is finally starting to look like the team many pegged them to be in the offseason, coming off a 28-3 win over the Bengals two weeks ago and a 21-17 road victory against the defending champion Eagles on Sunday.
I’m still not ready to call this Broncos team “legit,” considering two of their three wins came against one of the league’s worst teams in Tennessee back in Week 1, and a Jake Browning-led Bengals squad in Week 4. The win over the Eagles is massive, but Philly has shown signs of decline this season, and it may be that their Super Bowl hangover is finally catching up with them.
Nevertheless, Denver is once again in position to beat up on a bad team, much like they did against the Bengals.
The Jets rank dead last in dropback EPA, which should set Bo Nix up for another strong showing. He went 29-of-42 for 326 yards against Cincinnati, and 24-of-39 for 242 yards in Philadelphia. He’s thrown just one interception across his last three games after committing three turnovers in his first two starts. He appears to be settling in, and that should become even clearer against this Jets defense.
We’ll have to wait and see where sportsbooks set his passing props, but he’s definitely a player to watch this week.
Trusting Trends: I’m not a bettor who leans on trends, nor should you be. Still, there are exceptions — and one seems to be international games.
In overseas venues, favorites have thrived, going 37-14-1 straight up and 33-19 against the spread. Favorites of a field goal or more are 27-9-1 straight up and 23-14 ATS.
That doesn’t mean I’m sprinting to the counter to back Denver. I still have my doubts about this team as a whole, and more importantly, the best of the number is gone. The Broncos were available under the key number of seven earlier, but with the line now past that point, the value isn’t the same.
The better play is teasing Denver down from -7.5 to -1.5 on a standard six-point teaser. There are several teams this week that make sense to pair them with as a viable teaser leg.
What qualifies as a quality teaser leg? Typically, home favorites of -7.5 to -8.5, where you can tease down six points and cross through the key numbers of -7 and -3, landing anywhere from -1.5 to -2.5. Another spot is home or road underdogs catching +1.5 to +2.5, where you can tease them up six points to cross over +3 and +7.
Other Week 6 options that fit the bill are the Seahawks (+1.5) and the Lions (+2.5), and by kickoff we may see a couple more teams fall into that category.
So if you’re looking for a way to get involved with this early Sunday matchup, then consider teasing down Denver and finding an edge with some Bo Nix props.
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