New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons Preview
The Falcons finally secured their fourth win of the season after veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins guided them to a 24–10 victory in New Orleans in Week 12. Conversely, the Jets are trying to avoid a third straight loss when they host Atlanta on Sunday.
Neither team has much to play for outside of pride, but with a tight spread and several angles to attack, this matchup still offers value in the betting market. Let’s break it down with my New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons preview and picks.
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New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons Preview & Prop Bet
Can Tyrod Taylor lead the Jets to their third win of the season?
Jets vs Falcons Preview
Last week, Tyrod Taylor reclaimed the starting role from Justin Fields. In that matchup at Baltimore, the Jets fell 23–10, with Taylor completing 17 of 28 passes (60.7%) for 222 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He also scrambled five times for 19 yards.
Among last week’s qualified quarterbacks, he graded out middle of the pack in the deeper metrics: 15th in EPA per play, 17th in CPOE, and 18th in success rate.
He’ll now face a Falcons defense that once looked formidable but has since faded into the bottom tier of the league. They did perform well last week, holding the Saints to just 10 points, but that wasn’t surprising. I backed Atlanta +2 largely because I expected their defense to limit an unproven rookie quarterback in Tyler Shough – and they did. Say what you want about Taylor, but he’s unquestionably a better quarterback than Shough.
Atlanta enters this matchup ranking 23rd in overall success rate allowed. They’re 16th against the pass in dropback success rate, but 28th in rush success rate allowed. Their biggest issue has been containing opposing tailbacks. Atlanta is allowing 4.6 yards per carry to running backs (23rd), and that number has climbed to 5.0 over their last three games.
That sets the stage for a potential big outing from Jets running back Breece Hall. His rushing prop at 69.5 yards is tempting, but he’s been volatile all season. He’s averaging 4.6 yards per attempt, yet has topped 60 rushing yards in only five games. When he hits, he explodes – but when he doesn’t, he’s nearly invisible. I’d lean toward an explosive Breece Hall showing on Sunday, but the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.
On the other side, Kirk Cousins and the Falcons offense take on a Jets defense that’s been wildly inconsistent – both good and bad. They rank 26th in EPA per play, but fourth in success rate, one of the biggest discrepancies you’ll find. For further context: they’re 26th in points allowed (26.5), 24th in yards per completion given up (10.4), and 14th in yards per play allowed (5.2). This group is improving under first-year head coach Aaron Glenn, but they’re still not fully reliable.
So what should we expect from Cousins? In last week’s win, he finished second in CPOE, ninth in success rate, and 21st in EPA per play among qualified QBs. He threw for 199 yards, completing 16 of 23 passes with two touchdowns and a pick. Not a bad showing from the 37-year-old. Even with the Jets’ defensive flaws, I actually expect them to step up and limit Cousins on Sunday. I’m not saying he won’t have moments, but he couldn’t clear 200 yards against New Orleans, and he threw for only 173 yards versus a much weaker Miami defense in his other start this year.
There’s a reason Atlanta is favored by just 2.5 points and why the total has dropped from 40 to 39.5 – this game projects as sloppy, low-scoring football. On paper, the Falcons have the better roster, but I don’t have the same confidence in them this week as I did heading into their Saints matchup in Week 12.
I do have conviction in a prop bet, though…
New York vs Atlanta Prop Bet
Let’s circle Tyrod Taylor and his passing yards prop for this NFL Week 13 matchup. His number is as low as 180.5, and I’m betting him to go over it.
The last five quarterbacks to face the Falcons have all thrown for at least 205 yards — a stretch that includes Bryce Young’s 448-yard outburst. Over that span, Atlanta is allowing an average of 282 passing yards per game.Taylor isn’t an electric passer, but he’s more than capable of eclipsing this short mark. He threw for 197 yards at Tampa Bay back in September and also tossed 222 yards last week in Baltimore.
I’m sure it won’t be a sweat-free proposition, but with such a low number and a matchup against a weaker defense, it’s tough to ignore the over.
Best Bet: Tyrod Taylor Over 180.5 Passing Yards (-112)
NFL Record: 70-51 (+10.87 units)
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