New York Giants vs Los Angeles Chargers: The inevitable has finally happened – a change at quarterback for the New York Giants.
It was only a matter of time before the aging and declining Russell Wilson was benched. The summer debate was whether Jameis Winston or rookie Jaxson Dart would eventually take over.
Dart answered that question in the preseason, completing 32-of-47 passes for 372 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions, while adding six carries for 52 yards and a score.
The Giants were already a focal point for me before the season began, as they were my favorite win total bet. I played them under 5.5 wins.
Why? Because they were dealt a brutal schedule despite finishing poorly last season, they had uncertainty at quarterback, and head coach Brian Daboll’s seat was already beginning to warm up.
I predicted New York would start 0-4 before making the switch under center. I was off by a week, but here we are heading into Week 4 with Daboll turning to the player he drafted in hopes of extending his leash.
The question now is whether that will be enough against what looks like a powerhouse in the Los Angeles Chargers. Let’s break it down with my New York Giants vs Los Angeles Chargers predictions.
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New York Giants vs Los Angeles Chargers NFL Betting Insights
Has Brian Daboll found his guy in Jaxson Dart?
Shifting Odds: So how exactly did this news impact the betting market?
The Chargers opened as 5.5-point favorites with a total of 45.5. After the announcement, money came in on Los Angeles, pushing the line to -6.5. The total, meanwhile, drew action toward the under and has dropped as low as 43.
Giants vs Chargers Predictions: Despite what many may have thought, this matchup was already shaping up to be intriguing.
As strong as the Chargers have looked, this could still be a tricky spot. I’m a huge fan of Justin Herbert and this team overall – I even backed them last week against Denver – but it’s been a taxing start to the season.
Their first three games all came against division rivals: an international opener against the Chiefs, a primetime showdown in Las Vegas with the Raiders, and then a narrow 23-20 home win over the Broncos.
On paper, Los Angeles is clearly the superior team to New York. But the cross-country trip is no small challenge, and now they’ll be without running back Najee Harris, who suffered a gruesome injury and is now out for the season.
What can we make of this situation now?
Let’s be honest – it’s hard to imagine Jaxson Dart performing worse than Russell Wilson. Yes, he’s a rookie, and yes, he’s up against a Los Angeles defense that ranks among the league’s best (fourth-fewest points allowed at 16.7 per game and ninth-fewest yards per play at 4.9).
But Dart has the freedom to play loose. Expectations are minimal, and his coach has already confirmed he’ll remain the starter for the rest of the season. Realistically, the Giants have nothing to lose. Of course, they still have games and pride on the line, but nobody pegged them as a playoff contender.
The real goal is incremental growth and staying competitive — and I believe Dart can deliver that. With minimal film on him at the NFL level, New York may even benefit from a short-term element of surprise. I’m not calling for an upset, but I do think they could keep it close. Pair Dart’s spark with his teammates rallying behind him, and we may see an inspired Giants effort on Sunday.
That leads me to taking +6.5 with New York. As scary as that may be, if there’s a chance to capitalize on a spread with the G-Men, this could be the best spot to do so.
As for the prop market, the Giants side is tough to project with the quarterback change. On the Chargers side, though, rookie running back Omarion Hampton stands out.
With Najee Harris sidelined, Hampton is in line for a heavy workload against a Giants run defense that’s allowing 5.2 yards per carry and ranks 30th in both rush EPA per play and success rate allowed.
Last week, Hampton managed 70 yards against a much stronger Broncos defense. The efficiency wasn’t great (3.4 yards per carry), but the volume was there with 19 rushes, plus he found the end zone. That tells us Harbaugh trusts him.
I took a piece of Hampton at -110 odds to score a touchdown against this weak Giants’ run defense.
Plays:
- Giants +6.5 (-110)
- Omarion Hampton Anytime TD (-110)
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