New York Giants vs Kansas City Chiefs: Will Patrick Mahomes avoid starting a season 0-3 for the first time in his career? Or can Russell Wilson bring some of that offensive rhythm he flashed in Jerry World back home to pull off the upset against Kansas City?
Let’s break it down with my Kansas City Chiefs vs New York Giants picks and predictions for Sunday Night Football.
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New York Giants vs Kansas City Chiefs NFL Betting Insights
Will Russell Wilson continue to connect with Malik Nabers on Sunday night?
Facing Reality: The Chiefs opened as 6-point favorites, with the total set at 43.5. As of now, the spread hasn’t budged much, but the total has crept up to 45. Is that a reaction to Russell Wilson’s near-500-yard outing in Dallas last week, when the Giants hung 37 points in an overtime thriller? Or is it more about concerns that the Chiefs’ defense may not be as stout as years past?
Let’s be blunt: the Giants’ offense isn’t suddenly elite. The Cowboys’ defense is horrid, and this is the same Giants team that couldn’t even find the end zone in Week 1 against Washington, scoring just six points. On the flip side, the Chiefs’ defense isn’t exactly broken. They just had to deal with the Chargers in an international spot to open the season, along with the defending Super Bowl champs the following week.
So, the upward move on the total feels a bit odd. I don’t have enough conviction to jump on the under, but I expected the number to hold steady – and won’t be surprised if it ticks back down before kickoff.
What to Play: While -6 is the consensus number, you can still spot a few -5.5s floating around. If I had to pick a side, I’d be backing the favorite.
Yes, it’s the obvious, chalky play. But seriously – would you rather throw your money behind Russell Wilson and this shaky Giants roster, or trust one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time trying to avoid the worst start of his career?
I’m not surprised that Kansas City started 0-2; heck, I faded them last week. They’re fine, and will continue to be one of the league’s top teams. The problem is their inability to cover consistently. Last year, they finished 8-11-1 against the spread.
We can’t let last year’s spread record influence our approach here. The Chiefs are motivated to show themselves, and the league, that they’re still the dominant team we’ve become accustomed to. So yes, I’d lean toward Kansas City covering, but it’s not a play I’d label as a best bet.
The wager I feel more confident in centers on Mahomes and his completions prop.
We can grab Mahomes’ completions prop at 21.5, priced -132 to the over, against this Giants defense. This is the same unit that let Dak Prescott go 38-of-52 last week, and a week prior gave up 19-of-30 to Jayden Daniels. Daniels likely would’ve added more had Washington not been in control for most of the second half.
Through two games, New York is giving up a 69.5% completion rate (26th in the league), while ranking 23rd in both dropback EPA and success rate allowed.
Mahomes went 24-of-39 against the Chargers before posting a 16-of-29 line versus Philadelphia. I’ll take the latter with a grain of salt, considering the Eagles boast arguably the best defense in football.
The potential return of Xavier Worthy would give Mahomes a much-needed boost in the passing game. On the road in primetime, the formula for winning is simple: let your best player take over. For Kansas City, that’s Mahomes. The run game isn’t anything special, so if the Chiefs are going to find their rhythm again, it has to come through his arm.
Play: Patrick Mahomes Over 21.5 Completions (-132)
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