Despite owning a –50 point differential, the Carolina Panthers currently sit atop the NFC South. Carolina is 7–6, holding a half-game lead over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who dropped their second straight game on Thursday night to fall back in the division race.
Now, the Panthers have an opportunity to both extend their lead and exact revenge when they host the New Orleans Saints on Sunday – the same team that beat them 17–7 in Week 10. New Orleans, led by Tyler Shough, enters at 3–10, yet is catching just +2.5 points in this matchup.
Is this narrow spread justified, or is it disrespectful toward the Panthers?
I’ll break it all down below in my New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers preview and picks.
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New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers Preview & Picks
Can Bryce Young keep his team atop the NFC South?
Saints vs Panthers Preview
The Saints have been an interesting team, to say the least. Despite owning a poor record, I don’t think they’re a unit many NFL teams are eager to face right now. New Orleans’ defense is still holding its own, ranking 11th in EPA per play and 12th in yards allowed per game (313.5). On top of that, rookie quarterback Tyler Shough just led them to an outright win last Sunday against a division rival, knocking off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 8.5-point underdogs.
Shough was pedestrian through the air, completing 13 of 20 passes for 144 yards with one interception, but he made his biggest impact on the ground. He rushed for 55 yards on seven attempts and scored twice with his legs. The question now becomes: what can we expect from the rookie this Sunday?
He draws another favorable matchup against a vulnerable defense. I’ve been vocal all season about my concerns with this Panthers defense, and nothing has changed my mind – even with Carolina sitting atop the division. The Panthers rank 26th in EPA per play and 14th in success rate allowed. They’re also 25th in rush EPA and 23rd in dropback EPA.
That said, as feisty as this Saints team has been, I’m not expecting a major offensive breakthrough. Since Shough took over in Week 8 against Tampa Bay, New Orleans ranks 29th in both EPA per play and success rate offensively. Shough owns a 5–5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has failed to throw for more than 180 yards in half of his starts.
If the Saints are going to win this game, it likely won’t be because of Shough’s arm – or at least not primarily. Even without Alvin Kamara, New Orleans has found a capable replacement in rookie Devin Neal. Over his past two starts, Neal has carried the ball 33 times for 117 yards and a touchdown. He’s also added 79 receiving yards on nine catches over his past three games. This sets up as another opportunity for Neal to produce against a below-average Panthers run defense.
On the other side, the bigger question is whether Bryce Young is someone we can trust – not just in this matchup, but in general. For now, I lean heavily toward no. Sure, he had a massive performance against Atlanta a few weeks ago, throwing for over 440 yards and three touchdowns, but Carolina still needed overtime to escape with a 30–27 win.
Outside of that outlier, Young has eclipsed 200 passing yards just twice all season. In the first meeting against New Orleans, he completed 17 of 25 passes for only 124 yards, with no touchdowns and an interception. Overall, he has the Panthers ranked 24th in offensive EPA per play and 15th in success rate.
Among 35 qualified quarterbacks this season, Young ranks 26th in EPA, 23rd in CPOE and 21st in success rate.
While Carolina could certainly win this game – and may ultimately win the division – I’m still not buying them as a legitimate threat beyond taking advantage of weak competition.
Saints vs Panthers Picks
Whether or not I buy into Carolina long term doesn’t necessarily matter for this specific game. That said, it’s still important to recognize what this team truly is.
This matchup presents an interesting dilemma. Do you side with a team that has nothing to lose and is coming off one of the most impressive wins of the season, or back an overrated, road division favorite in a revenge spot following a bye week?
Honestly, I’d be content taking neither side. But if you’re looking for action, the safest approach is teasing up the New Orleans Saints. With a standard six-point teaser, you can move them from +2.5 to +8.5 and pair them with another leg.
Based on historical teaser success, strong partners include the Patriots teased from +1.5 to +7.5, the Commanders from +2.5 to +8.5, the Bengals from +2.5 to +8.5, or the Broncos from +2.5 to +8.5. The Bears are also worth consideration, as teasing them down from -7.5 to -1.5 puts them in a favorable position.
In the prop market, I’ll be targeting Devin Neal over 50.5 rushing yards. In last week’s win, he carried the ball 19 times for 70 yards – a noticeable jump from the week prior at Miami, when he logged 14 carries for 47 yards. He’s averaging just 3.6 yards per carry in his two starts, but this sets up as a favorable matchup against a Panthers run defense allowing 4.5 yards per carry on the season and 4.9 over its past three games.
I’ll bank on Neal continuing to build on that usage Sunday in what should be a competitive division matchup.
Best Bet: Devin Neal Over 50.5 Rush Yards (-118)
NFL Record: 80-63-1 (+7.22 units)
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