New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons
I know what you’re thinking: “Why the heck would I care about a game between the 2-8 Saints and the 3-7 Falcons?”
Fair question. But it’s still a division battle, Kirk Cousins is trotting out as the starter and, most importantly, there’s betting value to be had. I’ll break down exactly where that value is, and plenty more, with my New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons preview and picks.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
You can also browse our recommendations for the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.
New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Preview & Picks
Can Tyler Shough lead the Saints to another win?
Saints vs Falcons Preview
The Kirk Cousins–led Atlanta Falcons will look to snap their five-game losing skid in the Big Easy on Sunday when they face a Tyler Shough–led Saints squad that’s coming off a 17–7 win at Carolina – followed by a bye week – this Sunday at 4:25 pm ET.
Michael Penix Jr. has been ruled out for the remainder of the season after exiting last week’s game with an ACL injury that will require surgery. So the question now becomes: can we finally see some Kirk Cousins magic in his second start of the season?
We certainly didn’t see anything close to that in his first appearance, when he completed just 21 of 31 passes for 173 yards with no touchdowns in a 34–10 blowout loss to the Miami Dolphins. At the time, and still today, Miami has been one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Cousins will get another crack at a struggling unit this Sunday, as the Saints rank 21st in success rate and 18th in EPA per play allowed. They’re also 21st in points allowed per game (25) and 21st in red-zone defensive efficiency (60.6%).
Atlanta’s defense isn’t far behind. A once-respected group has now drifted to 23rd in success rate and 20th in EPA per play allowed. They’re giving up 5.4 yards per play this season – a number that has jumped to 6.2 over their last three games.
That’s the defense rookie quarterback Tyler Shough will see in NFL Week 12. We’ve now seen a three-game sample from the former Louisville Cardinal, and he’s completing just 61.4% of his throws (51-of-83) for 586 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions.
In those three games, among qualified quarterbacks, he ranks 26th in adjusted EPA per play, 25th in success rate and 22nd in CPOE. There hasn’t been anything impressive about his play, and nothing he has shown suggests his team should be favored in any matchup.
New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Picks
That’s why I’m taking +2 (-110) on the Falcons. Obviously, Kirk Cousins isn’t what he once was. That’s not to say he was ever an elite quarterback, but he was more than capable of pushing the ball downfield and winning games. I think he can do both of those things against this lackluster Saints team.
The Falcons still have plenty of talented skill players who can help Cousins pick apart this New Orleans defense. And as for Atlanta’s defense, they should be playing with enough pride to avoid getting embarrassed by a largely unproven rookie quarterback.
Atlanta gets the nod at quarterback, they get the edge in skill-position talent and the defenses are essentially even – yet the Saints are favored. This game should be a pick’em, or even show Atlanta as a slight favorite. I don’t care that New Orleans is coming off a win and extra prep time – they stink. Cousins will also be playing with extra incentive to prove he should’ve been the starter over Penix all season, and this is a great matchup for him to make that point.
Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons +2 (-110)
Still Didn’t Get Your NFL Fix?
Follow me on X @dannyburke5 for all my picks, analysis and plenty more. Also be sure to follow Betting News on ‘X’ and Twitch to catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day and check out our Free Expert Picks for every major sports league.
More NFL News
NFL Betting News
Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings Preview & Predictions (12/14)
NFL Betting News
Chasing Six | NFL Week 15 Anytime Touchdown Bets
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER