New England Patriots vs New York Jets Preview & Predictions (11/13)

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New England Patriots vs New York Jets

Make that seven wins in a row for Mike Vrabel’s Patriots. Who would’ve thought? New England (8-2) sits atop the AFC East heading into Week 11 and is now laying a double-digit spread at home against their division-rival New York Jets (2-7).

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday night at Gillette Stadium, with Prime Video carrying the broadcast.

Let’s break down this matchup with my New England Patriots vs. New York Jets preview and predictions.

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New England Patriots vs New York Jets NFL Betting Insights

Need some insight for Thursday Night Football? Take a look at our New England Patriots vs New York Jets preview and predictions...

Mike Vrabel looks to extend his team’s winning streak to eight games on Thursday night

Patriots vs Jets Preview

Not only are the Patriots winners of consecutive games, but their upcoming opponent, the New York Jets, is as well. Though the Jets have only won their last two, while New England hasn’t lost since Week 3.

Despite the recent wins, the Jets are dealing with a setback. Garrett Wilson will miss the next 3-4 weeks with a knee sprain, and that’s a tough hit for an offense that’s already grinding to generate anything through the air with Justin Fields.

Yes, Fields has helped them get those past two wins, but if you actually look at the production, it’s still concerning – and it has been for a while.

Against the Browns, he attempted just 11 passes. He completed six for 54 yards with one touchdown and one interception. And 42 of those yards came on a bubble screen that Breece Hall did all the work on. Take that play out, and Fields essentially threw for 12 yards.

Look, I’m not trying to pile on Fields here. I bet the Jets last week and was happy to cash the ticket. But this level of quarterback play just isn’t sustainable. And I’m not saying anything people aren’t already aware of – it’s honestly surprising they’ve managed to pull out these past two wins.

Two weeks ago, they pulled a miracle comeback against one of the league’s worst defenses in Cincinnati, erasing a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter to win 39–38. Then, this past week’s win was helped by facing Dillon Gabriel, who has been the worst starting quarterback in the NFL by just about every metric, plus a temporary “rally around each other” boost after the team traded away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams.

Don’t expect that spark to continue against the Patriots. 

New England hushed a lot of critics this past week when they went on the road and beat Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers 28-23. Yes, the Patriots have played the easiest schedule in the NFL, and people have been slow to buy into what this team actually is. But Week 10 was the chance to prove something against what’s viewed as a respectable Tampa Bay squad, and they did exactly that. Now, I do think the Bucs are a bit fraudulent – which is part of why I backed Drake Maye and New England – but the point remains: that was still an impressive, composed win from a team that’s trending in the right direction.

Jets coach Aaron Glenn continues to keep his quarterback situation fluid and has refused to name a starter moving forward. The other option is veteran Tyrod Taylor, who at least offers more consistency and can push the ball downfield.

But, let’s be honest – whichever quarterback gets the nod isn’t going to make much of a difference. This is a fantastic spot for New England, and the betting market has reflected that.

New York opened as high as a 10.5-point favorite, and that number has climbed to a consensus -11.5. The total has also ticked down from 45 to 43.

It’s unusual to see such a large spread on a Thursday Night Football matchup between division rivals, but it speaks to the current gap between these franchises.

Just look at the quarterbacks:

  • Drake Maye: 2nd in CPOE, 3rd in adjusted EPA/play, 8th in success rate

  • Justin Fields: 25th in CPOE, 30th in adjusted EPA/play, 26th in success rate

Defensively, New England ranks 8th in EPA/play allowed and 15th in success rate allowed. The Jets are 25th in EPA/play allowed but do sit 6th in success rate allowed.

New England vs New York Predictions

Rarely do I bet games with double-digit spreads, and this isn’t the spot where I’m making an exception. I do think the Patriots win this game and control the tempo, but asking them to cover more than 10 points on a short week, after one of their biggest wins of the season, against a divisional opponent, doesn’t exactly scream value. Add in Justin Fields’ dual-threat ability – if he plays – and I’d rather stay away from the side.

I would’ve likely played the under if I grabbed the best of the number, but at 43, there’s not much there either.

However, this setup does tell us something about how the game should play out. As a double-digit favorite, New England should build a lead and lean heavily on the run game to put it away. The Patriots finally got production on the ground last week because they finally fed their best back, TreVeyon Henderson, who ran it 14 times for 147 yards and two scores in Tampa. 

Before that, New England was at the bottom of the league in rushing success rate. There’s no reason Vrabel goes away from that here. The Jets rank 22nd in rush EPA allowed and have given up 4.5 yards per carry this season – and 5.1 per carry over their last three games alone.

I’m not really looking to back Henderson’s props here – instead, I’m looking to fade Drake Maye. This is the kind of spot where New England shouldn’t need much from him in the passing game. And while he’s been great, he hasn’t actually been asked to throw a ton compared to league standards. He’s averaging just 20.5 completions on 28.6 attempts per game, and he’s making the most of those throws – completing over 71% of them for more than 255 yards per game with 19 total touchdowns to only five interceptions. But in the Patriots’ wins, there simply hasn’t been a heavy demand for Maye’s arm.

When the Patriots lost in Week 1 to the Raiders, Maye went 30-for-46. In their only other loss of the season, Week 3 against Pittsburgh, he went 28-for-37. In every win, his volume has been noticeably lower. The most he’s thrown in a Patriots victory was last week in Tampa, when he went 16-for-31. Outside of that game, he hasn’t attempted more than 30 passes or completed more than 22 in any win.

And the matchup supports that trend continuing. Because New York is so weak against the run, opponents simply don’t need to throw much to beat them. The Jets are allowing just 18.6 completions (7th fewest) and 29.8 pass attempts per game (9th fewest), and they rank 6th in completion percentage allowed (62.3%). All of that lines up perfectly with the idea of Maye staying under 20.5 completions on Thursday night.

He’s stayed under this number in 6 of 10 games, and in a game script where the Patriots should control things on the ground and play from ahead, he won’t need to push volume. The explosive plays will still be there, but the offense shouldn’t require him to string together short, frequent throws.

New England shouldn’t need much to get past the Jets – and I don’t expect much from Maye as a passer because of it.

Best Bet: Drake Maye Under 20.5 Completions (-108)

NFL Record: 59-46 (+5.23 units)

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