New England Patriots vs Cleveland Browns
One of the league’s hottest teams, the New England Patriots, looks to extend their winning streak to five games when they host the Cleveland Browns on Sunday.
Drake Maye and the Patriots will face Dillon Gabriel and the Browns at Gillette Stadium, with kickoff set for 1:00 p.m. ET. New England is currently a 7-point favorite, and the total has dropped to 40.5.
Can New England keep the flames burning, or will Cleveland rain on their parade? I’ll tell you with my New England Patriots vs. Cleveland Browns preview and props.
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New England Patriots vs Cleveland Browns NFL Betting Insights
Will this be the week Dillon Gabriel takes a step forward?
Patriots vs Browns Preview
Are the Patriots really as good as their 5-2 record suggests? Does it really matter? For their upcoming Week 8 matchup against a rookie quarterback and an inferior Browns team, probably not – but for their playoff aspirations, it certainly does.
New England has benefited from a favorable schedule so far, facing the Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Saints, and Titans. Outside of Buffalo, all of those teams are below average. The Patriots did take care of business against them – and while winning any NFL game is no small feat – it’s worth keeping that context in mind when evaluating this team. Their two losses came at home: one in Week 1 against the 2-5 Raiders and another against Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers a few weeks later.
Drake Maye is emerging as a legitimate star, but he has yet to face a defense of Cleveland’s caliber. The Browns are tied for the fewest yards per play allowed in the league (4.5) and rank third in both EPA per play and success rate. Their strength lies in stopping the run, where they sit second in both rush EPA and rush success rate allowed. That’s bad news for a Patriots offense that ranks 31st in both rushing EPA and success rate, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.
Granted, the Patriots haven’t needed to rely on their ground game much, but that’s largely a byproduct of their competition. That likely won’t fly against this Browns front. They’ll need to establish some semblance of balance if they want to move the ball consistently. Cleveland’s secondary is also top-10, meaning the Patriots can’t just expect Maye to keep playing at his current clip without resistance.
To his credit, Maye has been sensational: completing 75% of his passes for 1,744 yards, 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions. His poise and accuracy have been remarkable, but those numbers will be tested and likely dip a bit after Sunday’s matchup.
What should we expect from the Browns’ offense? Well, probably not a repeat of what we saw in Week 7. Given the egregious weather conditions, last Sunday’s matchup against the Dolphins set up perfectly for Cleveland. They could lean on their dominant defense and let rookie running back Quinshon Judkins exploit one of the league’s weakest run defenses. That won’t be the case this week, though.
New England’s run defense ranks third in EPA and seventh in success rate, allowing the second-fewest yards per carry (3.4). That means rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel will have to shoulder a much larger load – and that’s not exactly an encouraging scenario for the Browns. In three starts, the 24-year-old has completed fewer than 60% of his passes, throwing for just 546 yards and three touchdowns, though he has yet to commit a turnover. Among 34 qualified quarterbacks, Gabriel ranks 34th in both success rate and CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected), and 28th in adjusted EPA per play.
It’s not like anyone expected the kid to light it up in his first few games with a notoriously bad organization, but those numbers are still concerning. Last week was an outlier – the setup was perfect for Cleveland, and that’s clearly not the case this Sunday. I don’t have enough confidence in his ability to execute in the red zone just yet, which keeps me from backing the Browns with the points. However, here is how I’ll be approaching Gabriel from a betting perspective…
New England vs Cleveland Props
The Patriots are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete over 72% of their passes (30th) and average 10.6 yards per completion (27th). Given how stout New England’s run defense has been, and the likelihood that Cleveland will be trailing and forced to throw, Dillon Gabriel should have plenty of opportunities through the air.
New England is giving up 236 passing yards per game, and every opposing quarterback has thrown for at least 227 yards, with two exceptions: Aaron Rodgers, who finished with just 139 yards on 16 completions in a game Pittsburgh controlled from start to finish, and the Carolina duo of Bryce Young (150 yards on 18 completions) and Andy Dalton (58 yards on five completions).
Gabriel hasn’t been particularly accurate, but this is a spot where he could post better numbers against a Patriots secondary that’s been vulnerable to passing attacks. His first career start came overseas against one of the league’s top defenses in Minnesota, and he still managed 190 yards. He followed that with 221 yards against Pittsburgh – a secondary that mirrors New England’s in both structure and performance – before attempting just 18 passes for 116 yards in last week’s wind-plagued game versus Miami.
When you remove the outliers – the weather game and the debut against an elite defense – his Steelers outing is the best indicator of what to expect here. While it’s unlikely he throws 52 passes again, somewhere in the 210–230 yard range feels like a realistic projection against this Patriots defense.
Best Bet:
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