Sunday offers the final chance for the Buffalo Bills to contend for the AFC East against the New England Patriots. Buffalo (9-4) is a slight -1 to -1.5-point favorite against New England (11-2), with the total set at 49.5.
The first meeting between these teams resulted in a 23-20 Patriots upset win. Will the same result occur this time around, or can the Bills bounce back? I’ll tell you what to expect with my New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills preview and picks.
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New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Preview & Picks
Can Josh Allen lead the Bills to avenge their early-season loss to New England?
Patriots vs Bills Preview
These division foes first met back in October during NFL Week 5. Buffalo closed as a 7.5-point favorite, but it was the underdog Patriots who not only covered, but won the game 23-20.
Drake Maye went 22 of 30 for 273 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for two scores, but managed just 14 total yards on seven carries. New England’s ground game was practically nonexistent, totaling just 71 yards on 22 attempts (3.2 yards per carry).
In a revenge game, Patriots wide receiver Stefon Diggs made his presence known, hauling in 10 receptions for 146 yards.
On the flip side, Josh Allen completed 22 of 31 passes for 253 yards, two touchdowns, and one pick. He also added 53 rushing yards on nine scrambles. James Cook was contained for the most part, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry for 49 total yards.
Last week, the Bills got back their starting tight end, Dalton Kincaid – a crucial return considering he was their leading receiver in the first matchup, bringing in six catches for 108 yards. In last week’s return, Kincaid caught four of five targets for 41 yards and scored a touchdown.
The narrative surrounding this New England team is that they’re fraudulent due to the easy schedule they’ve played. Their biggest and most important win of the season was the original matchup against Buffalo – and even if you’re not fully bought into Maye and this group quite yet, you have to respect that specific win.
Outside of that, the next true test they faced was at Tampa Bay, where they won 28-23. That result wasn’t surprising to me; I actually bet New England in that game. Tampa Bay, up to that point and arguably still right now, remains one of the NFL’s biggest frauds. Their defense has major gaps and has dealt with injuries all year.
The point being: no, the Patriots have not played a difficult schedule whatsoever, but it would be foolish to completely discredit them just because they’re beating the teams put in front of them. And in their most important game of the year, they came through – and that just so happens to be against the team they face again this Sunday, except this time they get them at home with the division on the line.
One important takeaway from the first meeting is how Buffalo controlled much of the game. The Bills lost primarily because they turned the ball over three times compared to New England’s one giveaway. Outside of those errors, Buffalo outgained New England in total yards (363 to 338), first downs (25 to 21), total plays (61 to 56), rushing yards (118 to 71), and time of possession (34:31 to 25:29).
If the Bills had played just a slightly cleaner game, they probably come away with the win – but that can be said for most of their losses. It wasn’t the only time this season where sloppy play cost them. However, Buffalo is turning the tide at the right time. They’re getting hot, and this is a bad time to face them, regardless of the opponent.
Offensively this season, the Bills sit third in EPA per play and fourth in success rate. Among 34 qualified quarterbacks, Josh Allen ranks third in EPA/play, fifth in success rate, and eighth in CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected).
As for Buffalo’s defense, well, that’s been the area of main concern. They rank 13th in success rate and 16th in EPA/play allowed. Against the pass, they’re rock solid — top-10 in both dropback EPA and success rate. Their vulnerabilities, however, reside against the run. Buffalo sits 31st in rush EPA and 23rd in rush success rate allowed. They’re giving up 5.1 yards per rush attempt this season, but over their last three games they’ve improved that number to an impressive 3.6. They did limit New England’s ground attack in their first meeting, and perhaps they can do so again.
Even with the emergence of rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson, the Patriots still struggle to generate consistent momentum on the ground. They rank 30th in both offensive rush EPA and success rate, gaining just 3.9 yards per carry, tied for 28th, and that average has dipped to 3.3 over their last three games.
Conversely, Buffalo leads the NFL in yards per carry at 5.1, which has risen to 5.5 over their last three outings.
If New England hopes to win another game against the Bills, they have to do it through the air. Based on what we’ve seen, Drake Maye is the guy to make that happen.
Maye is neck-and-neck with Matt Stafford in the MVP race, and rightfully so. He’s thrown for 3,412 yards with a 71.5% completion rate and a 23–6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Oddly enough, he still has yet to throw for 300 yards in a game this season, and I don’t expect him to do so in Week 15 either, considering the Bills allow the second-fewest passing yards per game (171.8).
#Patriots QB Drake Maye on Josh Allen:
“It’s a little different when you’re playing the MVP. One of the best players in the league… Shoot, I hate to say it, but he’s fun to watch when he’s playing. Big fan of him off the field… He’s been great to me.”
(🎙️@WEEIAfternoons) pic.twitter.com/OYEZoCwO7k
— Carlos A. Lopez (@LosTalksPats) December 9, 2025
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Picks
It’s incredibly difficult to beat a division opponent twice in a season, especially when it involves two winning teams with division implications on the line.
As impressive as that underdog victory was for New England the first time these teams met, it was really more a result of Buffalo’s mistakes than anything the Patriots did prolifically.
I still view the Bills as the top team in the AFC, and they’re hitting their stride at the perfect time. I don’t view the Patriots as frauds, but they are nowhere near as battle-tested as Buffalo.
The Bills offense can kill you in so many different ways, whereas if Maye can’t get comfortable in his dropbacks, that’s when trouble may ensue. I understand Maye has mobility, but not quite like Allen’s. And while Henderson has shown success lately, those performances came against much weaker opponents. Buffalo’s run defense has been horrid at times, but they’re improving each week – and I expect another step forward on Sunday.
Buffalo will make their presence known in round two, and we’re getting an affordable price on the better team to back that outcome. The AFC East will get tighter and far more entertaining after this game. Look for Josh Allen and the Bills to take care of business against Drake Maye and the New England Patriots.
Best Bet: Buffalo Bills Moneyline (-110)
NFL Record: 79-62-1 (+7.36 units)
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