New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons
The hottest team in the NFL takes on one of the more confusing ones when the New England Patriots host the Atlanta Falcons this Sunday at Gillette Stadium, at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Coach Mike Vrabel has guided the Patriots to a 6-2 record and has them riding a five-game winning streak. Can they extend that to six after facing Raheem Morris and the Falcons? Let’s take a deep dive into this matchup with my New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons preview and picks.
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New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons NFL Betting Insights
Patriots vs Falcons Preview
If you yourself are wondering why I describe the Falcons that way, well, let me explain.
Atlanta began its season with a 23-20 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – a game in which then-kicker Younghoe Koo missed a very makeable game-tying field goal. The following week, the Falcons responded impressively by beating the brakes off the Vikings in Minnesota on primetime, 22-6.
In what may end up being one of the more perplexing results of the year, they then traveled to Carolina to take on the Panthers – a division foe they’re plenty familiar with – and got shut out 30-0. Naturally, they responded by winning their next two games: 34-27 over the Commanders and 24-14 over the Buffalo Bills. At that point, everyone thought this team was back on track.
After their bye week, having just beaten the Bills by double digits, you’d think they’d be able to handle the 49ers and Dolphins. Nope. They lost a very winnable game at San Francisco and then got obliterated by one of the worst teams in the league, the Miami Dolphins, 34-10.
The Falcons were at a slight disadvantage in that matchup, being without their starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and top receiver Drake London. But in reality, that shouldn’t have mattered. Kirk Cousins is arguably the best backup option in the league, and even without London, Atlanta still has a plethora of offensive weapons, including arguably the best running back in football, who should’ve been able to move the ball consistently against the league’s worst run defense. Instead, Bijan Robinson was limited to just 25 yards on nine carries. It’s genuinely appalling how inexcusable that performance was from the entire team.
I suppose based on this team’s volatility this season, we should expect a convincing win against the Patriots this Sunday. That’s how it’s worked in other similar situations, right?
Well, before we discuss the legitimacy of that possibility, let’s explore the Patriots and see if they’re really as good as their win streak indicates.
There’s no question Drake Maye has been outstanding. He’s made major strides in the MVP betting market, now sitting inside the top three. He’s already thrown for over 2,000 yards with 15 touchdowns and only three interceptions, all while maintaining a remarkable completion rate above 75%.
But is Maye actually this good, or is his success a byproduct of the competition? We have to acknowledge the elephant in the room – the Patriots have played by far the easiest schedule in the NFL. And their two losses came against the Raiders, one of the worst teams in the league, and the Steelers, one of the worst defenses. That still forces us to keep Maye’s stardom somewhat in check.
The counterpoint, of course, is that he’s produced signature wins, including a road victory over the Buffalo Bills in primetime, and a 32-13 thrashing of one of the league’s toughest defenses in the Cleveland Browns last week.
New England vs Atlanta Picks
I do think Maye is a stud and likely to sustain his success, but I’m not nearly as confident in his supporting cast – especially on the defensive side.
New England ranks dead last in defensive red-zone efficiency, allowing opponents to score on 70.6% of trips inside the 20. They’re also allowing opponents to complete 70.5% of their passes (29th), average 10.1 yards per completion (19th), and give up 5.4 yards per play (18th).
Keep in mind, those numbers have come against some of the league’s worst offenses. While their opponents haven’t fared well in EPA (Expected Points Added), they’ve exposed the Patriots in Success Rate – the percentage of offensive plays that are “successful” based on yards gained relative to down and distance. New England ranks 19th in overall success rate allowed and 23rd in dropback success rate.
Against the run, they’re much better, ranking sixth, largely due to their strength up front, and partly because opponents often abandon the ground game once they fall behind. Still, it’s evident this defense boasts a respectable front seven but remains vulnerable in the secondary.
Now, up until the past couple of weeks, Atlanta’s defense was a major strength, but that’s since faded. The Falcons rank 28th in opponent red-zone efficiency (68.8%), 23rd in success rate allowed, and 15th in EPA per play allowed. Granted, they still perform well against the pass, which is crucial when trying to slow down this Patriots offense.
As noted, Maye has been prolific, while New England’s running game has been pitiful – ranking 31st in rush EPA and 30th in rush success rate. The Falcons, on the other hand, sit fifth in opponent completion percentage (61.8%) and opponent yards per completion (9.2), and seventh overall in yards per play allowed (4.9).
If there’s a path for Atlanta to get back on track, it has to start with their defense.
Relying solely on the inconsistency of Michael Penix Jr. is risky. Through six games, he’s completed just 61% of his passes for 1,409 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions, which are very disappointing numbers given the talent surrounding him.
Still, despite a few wake-up calls this season, last week’s embarrassment might be the one that reignites this team, particularly on offense. And this is the matchup to do it. I’m not entirely sold on the legitimacy of this Patriots team, especially defensively, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Penix Jr. and Bijan Robinson move the ball effectively on Sunday.
Much of the betting public will look at this matchup and think it’s crazy that a dominant Patriots team is laying fewer than six points against a Falcons squad that just got blown out by the lowly Miami Dolphins. But remember – no team is ever as good or as bad as it looked the week before. I’ll take take the points with Atlanta.
Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons +5.5 (-110) BetOnline
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