The game in NFL Week 14 with the biggest line movement features a battle between J.J. McCarthy and Jayden Daniels – with the former being the driving force behind this drastic shift.
Minnesota opened as high as a 3-point favorite at some shops, but now the Vikings sit as 1.5-point underdogs. Is this move warranted, and how should we approach it from a betting perspective? I’ll dive into that below with my Minnesota Vikings vs. Washington Commanders preview and pick.
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Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders Preview & Bet
Can J.J. McCarthy finally play a solid game when he faces one of the worst secondaries in the NFL on Sunday?
Vikings vs Commanders Preview
Up until Friday, it appeared Marcus Mariota was going to get the nod under center for the Commanders yet again. However, despite Washington’s season being completely lost at 3-9, they’re going to roll out their injury-prone second-year quarterback fresh off a gruesome elbow dislocation. Yes, it happened to his non-throwing arm, but even so – it still feels absurd to put Daniels out there in a season that’s effectively over.
The real question is: how big is the difference right now between Mariota and Daniels?
Long term, obviously, it’s massive. But given the current state of this roster, how the season has unfolded, and the fact Daniels is coming off an injury and likely dealing with some rust, the gap might not be as wide as people assume.
Mariota just threw for 296 yards and two touchdowns while leading Washington to 26 points in an overtime loss against one of the best defenses in football – the Denver Broncos – in his last outing. He also added 55 rushing yards on 10 carries.
When you stack these quarterbacks up statistically, the results might surprise some people:
EPA/Play: Mariota (15) | Daniels (20)
Success Rate: Mariota (12) | Daniels (16)
CPOE: Mariota (6) | Daniels (23)
Mariota has clearly been the more efficient quarterback. Yes, Daniels has missed time and has played several games without his top weapons, but Mariota has also been operating without some of those same skill-position players.
Earlier in the week, I was fully prepared to back the Vikings against Washington when it looked like Mariota would start. After the announcement that Daniels is returning to the lineup, I like the bet even more. First, Daniels has simply been the less-efficient quarterback, and this is a strange spot to throw him into: coming off injury, on the road, in a hostile environment, against a defense that loves to blitz, in a season that’s already gone off the rails.
Second, instead of laying a price with Minnesota, we’re now getting plus-money to back the better team.
Why am I so confident in Minnesota? It’s a fair question.
I’ve been more than critical – to put it lightly – of J.J. McCarthy’s ability to function as a starting quarterback in this league. But in this matchup, I’m actually putting some stock into him, or at least the players around him.
McCarthy shouldn’t have to do much. The Aaron Jones–Jordan Mason tandem should be able to carve up a Commanders run defense allowing 4.7 yards per carry (26th), and a staggering 5.5 yards per carry over the last three games. Washington also sits 26th in rush EPA per play and 23rd in rush success rate. This is a run defense begging to be attacked.
Even if Minnesota does let McCarthy sling it, he still should be capable of producing. Washington ranks dead last in dropback EPA per play and 28th in dropback success rate. One way or another, the Vikings have to get Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison involved – and this is the perfect matchup to do that.
On the other side of the ball, Brian Flores continues to call an aggressive defense that should rattle Daniels. Minnesota enters this game 10th in defensive EPA per play and 11th in success rate allowed.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Washington Commanders Bet
Even though Minnesota’s playoff chances are slim, they’re still technically alive – and more importantly, this is a statement game for them. A chance to prove to themselves and to the league that they’re not as bad as they’ve looked. That responsibility falls mostly on McCarthy. If you can’t handle business against this Commanders defense, then you shouldn’t be starting in the NFL.
The Vikings have the edge in just about every facet outside the quarterback position. I get that backing a McCarthy-led team feels gross, but don’t fall into the recency bias trap of how Washington looked in primetime last week or how bad Minnesota looked with Max Brosmer under center.
There’s simply no reason Jayden Daniels and the Commanders should be favored on the road in this spot.
Best Bet: Vikings Moneyline (+105)
NFL record: 75-58-1 (+8.06)
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