Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears Picks & Preview (11/16): Don’t Expect Fireworks

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Get ready for this NFC North showdown as our expert delivers his Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears preview & picks.

tMinnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

A battle of the NFC North takes place in the Land of 10,000 Lakes this Sunday, when the 4-5 Minnesota Vikings host the 6-3 Chicago Bears.

J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings are looking for their second win of the season over Caleb Williams and the Bears, after storming back to take the opener in Chicago, 27-24.

Will Kevin O’Connell get his team back on track, or can Ben Johnson keep his group rolling and deliver some revenge in Week 11 I’ll tell you what to expect with my Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears preview and picks.

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Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears NFL Betting Insights

Get ready for this NFC North showdown as our expert delivers his Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears preview & picks.

Will Caleb Williams continue to perform well against a division rival?

Vikings vs Bears Preview

Before we break down how these teams stack up this weekend, let’s refresh our memory on how their first meeting unfolded.

On Monday, September 8, the Chicago Bears hosted the Minnesota Vikings in both teams’ season openers. It marked rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy’s first NFL start and Ben Johnson’s first game as Chicago’s head coach.

For most of the game, it looked like Chicago would cruise to an opening-week win. Caleb Williams rushed for a touchdown to put the Bears up 7-0, and Chicago’s defense made McCarthy look nothing like a first-round pick. The Bears went into halftime leading 10-6, though the margin should’ve been wider if not for a Cairo Santos miss and a defensive lapse that allowed Minnesota to sprint down the field for a last-second field goal.

Chicago responded again after McCarthy threw a pick-six, extending the lead to 17-6, and that advantage held into the fourth quarter. But from there, it became the J.J. McCarthy show. The Vikings rattled off 21 unanswered points and stunned the Bears 27-24 – a brutal way to begin the Ben Johnson era.

Fast forward to Week 11, and a few things are clear. The Bears were always going to be, and still are, a work in progress. That was inevitable with a new head coach and a second-year quarterback already on his third system. But there have been real signs of improvement. They’re 6-3, and they’re finding ways to win games they would’ve lost in the past. Chicago was the better team in Week 1 and should’ve won – that’s not breaking news, just worth reiterating – and McCarthy has looked every bit as bad as I expected.

I couldn’t have been more excited to take Minnesota under 9.5 wins. It was wild to me that the betting market expected a rookie quarterback – who wasn’t a prolific passer in college and was coming off a major injury – to lead a team to double-digit wins in one of the toughest divisions in football. Hand up, I did take the Bears in that opener, so McCarthy proved me wrong there. But every step since, my assessment has been spot on.

It’s obvious his head coach doesn’t fully trust him – he played an injured Carson Wentz over McCarthy – and now even his teammates seem to be getting fed up, too.

If we look at his metrics, it paints a clear picture of the quarterback he really is. Among 37 qualified quarterbacks with at least 145 plays, McCarthy ranks 37th in EPA per play and 36th in both success rate and CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected).

The only quarterback behind him in success rate and CPOE is Dillon Gabriel – just to put into perspective the company he’s keeping.

As for the raw numbers, he’s completing an abysmal 53.7% of his passes for 692 total yards on 108 attempts. His touchdown-to-interception ratio sits at 5–6. He finally threw for more than 200 yards this past week when he attempted 42 passes, completing 20 for 248 yards against one of the league’s worst secondaries. Before that, he hadn’t eclipsed 158 yards.

Now, people might think McCarthy could thrive in this spot against a below-average Bears defense. And sure, that’s possible. It would be very Bears-esque to make a bad quarterback look good – re: Week 1 against J.J. McCarthy.

However, Chicago’s defense has been steadily improving for the most part. There have been a few outliers – their Week 2 blowout in Detroit when they allowed 52, Week 8 in Baltimore when Tyler Huntley hung 30 on them, and the wild Bengals game where they gave up 42. But even in that one, 14 of those points came in the final 90 seconds.

Overall, the Bears are giving up 27.4 points per game (28th). But if we eliminate those three spots, their average dips to 20.5. I’m pointing that out to paint a clearer picture of what the majority of their defensive efforts have looked like, and what we should expect against a mediocre offense, such as the one they’ll face this Sunday.

Chicago has climbed the defensive rankings and now sits 12th in overall success rate allowed. They’ve especially improved against the run, ranking ninth in rush success rate and 14th in rush EPA allowed. On the season, they’ve given up 5.2 yards per carry, but that number has dipped to 4.9 over their last three. They’ve also tightened up in the red zone, ranking 12th in opponent efficiency at 57.6%, and improving to 42.9% over their past three games.

A huge part of Chicago’s turnaround has been turnovers. The Bears lead the league in turnover differential at +14, with 13 interceptions and seven fumble recoveries. They’ve won six of their last seven, and in the lone loss at Baltimore, they didn’t force a single turnover. That’s been the difference for this team, along with Caleb Williams’ clutch gene in the fourth quarter.

There are still plenty of Caleb critics, but you can’t deny that he’s a gamer. The kid has ice in his veins. It hasn’t always been pretty, but he keeps finding ways to get them there.

He ranks 18th in EPA per play, 23rd in success rate, and 32nd in CPOE. Clearly there are still issues in his game, and he’d be the first to admit it. But he’s also dealt with an unstable offensive line that’s finally improving, a brand-new system and a ton of drops from his receivers. I’m not making excuses for him, it’s just the reality. He has the sixth-most drops in the NFL this season.

If we narrow the sample down to the past two weeks, Williams ranks sixth in EPA per play and seventh in success rate. McCarthy sits 24th and 25th in those same categories.

While the Bears’ defense has been improving, the Vikings have been trending the opposite direction. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores had his group near the top of the charts early in the season. However, they now sit 14th in EPA per play and 10th in success rate allowed. They’re still a solid defense, but the decline is noticeable, and the vulnerabilities are becoming clearer.

Even so, Minnesota will likely have the defensive edge in this matchup. The question then becomes: how long will it take Caleb Williams to get this offense into a rhythm? You can’t expect to play sloppy for three quarters and then pull off a miraculous finish like they did against the Giants this past weekend. The Vikings are far more disciplined and better coached. The Bears need to find offensive success early and force J.J. McCarthy into consistent passing situations.

Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason torched this Chicago run defense in Week 1, and even though the Bears have improved since, you better believe using those two will be Kevin O’Connell’s primary strategy right out of the gate.

Minnesota vs Chicago Picks

Even as a die-hard Bears fan, I can admit when a situation feels unfavorable – and that’s how I feel about this spot. While the Bears boast the better quarterback, playing in Minnesota is no easy task. I’d love to fully buy into the revenge narrative, but the Vikings are in a desperate spot after losing three of their last four. I’m not incredibly confident in the Bears winning this game outright.

That said, it’s tough to justify laying three points with J.J. McCarthy in any situation, especially against a division rival. He hasn’t shown nearly enough to warrant that kind of respect in the betting market. Sure, he could ride the coattails of his running backs and defense, but at some point the Bears offense should get going, and the pressure will fall on McCarthy to deliver. I could easily see this coming down to a game-winning field goal.

I would lean strongly toward taking +3 with Chicago, though some books are moving toward Minnesota, hinting at the possibility this line reaches 3.5. So I’ll wait on the spread, but I will invest in the total.

Both defenses have their issues, but even more than that, both quarterbacks struggle to produce consistent passing efforts. I’m surprised this total has climbed from the opener of 46.5 to 48.5. This feels like an ugly slugfest where both quarterbacks struggle. The running games will be a point of emphasis early and both defenses should play some of their best ball given the intensity of a division matchup and the overall ineptitude these offenses show far too often.

I’ll be playing the under 48.5 in this Vikings vs Bears NFC North showdown on Sunday.

Best Bet: Vikings vs Bears Under 48.5 (-110)

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