Minnesota Vikings vs Atlanta Falcons: Somehow, someway, J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings managed to score 21 fourth-quarter points at Soldier Field to shock the Bears 27-24.
It’s impressive enough for a rookie quarterback to pull that off in his first primetime start, but even more so considering he threw a pick-six earlier in the game. What’s harder to believe is that he was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week for that performance. Sure, credit to the kid for leading the comeback, but giving that award to someone who went 13-of-20 for 143 yards with two touchdowns and a turnover that directly resulted in points feels like a stretch.
The Bears fan in me had to vent. Anyway, McCarthy and the Vikings now turn to another primetime matchup, hosting the Atlanta Falcons – a team that, like Chicago, is coming off a tough 23-20 loss. For Atlanta, it came against their division foe, Tampa Bay.
The odds for this Sunday Night Football matchup opened with Minnesota as a 4.5-point favorite and the total at 45.5. Since then, both numbers have ticked down, with the Vikings now -3.5 and the total sitting at 44.5.
So, how should we approach this game? Let’s break it down with my Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons predictions and picks.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
You can also browse our recommendations for the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.
Minnesota Vikings vs Atlanta Falcons NFL Betting Insights
Can Michael Penix Jr. push this Falcons offense to a win on Sunday night?
Might McCarthy: Credit where it’s due – rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy clawed back to deliver a win on Monday night. But let’s not forget the first half, when for two quarters it looked like the entire country was ready to slap him with the “bust” label.
We have to tread lightly with our assessment going forward. I still have my reservations, but clearly McCarthy has plenty of fight and an ability to adjust when needed. He also benefits from a fantastic defense and coaching staff that help make his life easier.
This week he faces a Falcons defense that held Tampa Bay to 260 total yards and 4.6 yards per play in Week 1. Atlanta gave up 101 yards on the ground, while Baker Mayfield managed only 159 passing yards. Through one game, the Falcons sit 4th in defensive success rate allowed but 22nd in EPA per Play allowed.
Progression for Penix: Atlanta’s offense put up a respectable 358 yards against Tampa Bay in Week 1.
Rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. went 27-of-42 for 298 yards and a touchdown, while Bijan Robinson made his biggest impact through the air, racking up 100 yards on six receptions. On the ground, though, he was limited to just 24 yards on 12 carries.
Minnesota’s defense will be a tougher test. Last season, the Vikings ranked 2nd in defensive EPA per Play and 5th in success rate allowed. They gave up 24 points to the Bears in Week 1, though that includes McCarthy’s pick-six – so realistically it was 17. Chicago finished with 317 yards at 5.0 yards per play, including 119 on the ground. That’s where Atlanta needs Robinson to deliver if they want to win games against quality opponents.
To be fair, Caleb Williams accounted for 58 of those rushing yards, but D’Andre Swift still found some seams. Robinson should see better opportunities here. The challenge will be Penix dealing with Brian Flores’ defense, which led the NFL in blitz rate last year. Quick reads, short throws, and improvisation will be key if Atlanta is going to sustain drives.
Best Bet: Last season, Minnesota allowed 4.2 receptions per game to opposing running backs. With Brian Flores’ defense certain to bring heavy pressure, Michael Penix Jr. should rely on quick dump-offs to Bijan Robinson.
I don’t believe last week’s six-catch, 100-yard performance was an aberration – at least not the receptions part. Penix should continue leaning on his top weapon for easy throws, making Robinson a strong bet to go over 3.5 receptions at -125.
Play: Bijan Robinson Over 3.5 Receptions (-125)
Still Didn’t Get Your NFL Fix?
Follow me on X @dannyburke5 for all my picks, analysis and plenty more. Also be sure to follow Betting News on ‘X’ and Twitch to catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day and check out our Free Expert Picks for every major sports league.
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER