Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders
How about a trip to Madrid for the NFL’s final international game of the year? At 9:30 AM ET, the Miami Dolphins and Washington Commanders will kick things off on NFL Network to begin Sunday’s slate.
This marks the league’s first-ever regular-season game in Madrid. The matchup will be played at the Santiago Bernabéu, home of Real Madrid C.F.
So, who has the edge in this overseas showdown? Let’s break it all down with my Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders preview and picks.
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Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders NFL Betting Insights
Can Marcus Mariota snap his team’s losing streak this weekend?
Dolphins vs. Commanders Preview
When it rains, it pours – and that’s certainly been the case for Washington’s 2025-26 season. The Commanders are 3-7, have dropped five straight, and the injury list keeps getting longer.
We’ve known for a while that some key players are out, but here’s a quick refresher on notable names who will not suit up this Sunday:
- Jayden Daniels (QB)
- Terry McLaurin (WR)
- Treylon Burks (WR)
- Luke McCaffrey (WR)
- Marshon Lattimore (CB)
- Trey Amos (CB)
- Ale Kaho (LB)
Due to Jayden Daniels’ continuous injuries, Marcus Mariota has been forced into a larger role, and while he hasn’t been a disaster, he’s also not the solution. He’s completing 65.5% of his passes for 852 yards on 110 attempts with six touchdowns and four interceptions. He’s added 144 rushing yards and a score on the ground, but he hasn’t thrown for more than 213 yards in any game.
The good news for him? He’ll face one of the weaker defenses in the NFL. Miami ranks:
- 27th in EPA per play
- 25th in success rate
- 29th in dropback EPA
- 31st in dropback success rate
- Allowing 25.6 points per game (24th)
If there’s a spot for Mariota to look somewhat competent, this is it.
On the other side, Miami actually has momentum. The Dolphins just pulled off one of the bigger upsets of the season – catching more than a touchdown at home and beating Buffalo 30-13. The star of that game was De’Von Achane, who exploded for 174 yards on 22 carries with two rushing touchdowns and added 51 receiving yards.
He’s in another strong spot here. Washington is allowing 4.6 yards per carry on the season (23rd), and that number has ballooned to 5.3 over the past three games (fourth-worst in that span).
And while Miami’s defense has issues, Washington’s is somehow worse. Dan Quinn’s group sits:
- 30th in EPA per play
- 26th in success rate
- Dead last in dropback EPA
- 27th in dropback success rate
Washington is also tied for the most yards per play allowed this year (6.4) and have allowed a league-worst 7.6 yards per play over the last three weeks. They’re also giving up 28 points per game (29th). All these numbers are coming under a former defensive coordinator.
So, we know both defenses are horrid – but how do the quarterbacks stack up?
Mariota’s underlying numbers actually look respectable. Among 37 quarterbacks with at least 100 snaps this season, he ranks:
- 17th in Adjusted EPA/Play
- 13th in Success Rate
- 7th in CPOE
Tua Tagovailoa, meanwhile, sits much lower in those same categories:
- 26th in Adjusted EPA/Play
- 32nd in Success Rate
- 15th in CPOE
And when you zoom out to the overall offensive efficiency:
- Washington ranks 13th in EPA/Play and 8th in Success Rate
- Miami ranks 24th in EPA/Play and 30th in Success Rate
Some of the Commanders’ offensive sample was with Jayden Daniels under center, but even so, Mariota has performed better than expected and, statistically, better than Tua so far.
Marcus Mariota : 16/22 for 213 yards, 2 TD’s & a season-high 133.3 QB Rating pic.twitter.com/DIscmUUuEE
— Lee Harvey (@Sayian_Warrior) November 10, 2025
Miami vs Washington Prediction
On paper, Washington should have a slight edge – enough to at least consider taking the points in this neutral-site spot. But with the injury report still looking like a CVS receipt, it’s tough to justify backing the Commanders here.
The market opened Miami at -2 with a total of 47.5. The Dolphins have since nudged up to -2.5 (with some juice), and the total hasn’t moved much. I’d lean toward Miami winning, but it also wouldn’t be shocking if they followed last week’s huge upset by laying an egg against a weaker opponent.
What I do feel confident in is going right back to De’Von Achane.
Last week, his rushing prop was sitting around 60.5 against a vulnerable Buffalo run defense and on our show Any Given Wager, I mentioned how off that number felt. He proceeded to run for 174 yards.
De’Von Achane’s speed was on full display in Week 10 🏎️ pic.twitter.com/1fwj5NsgNh
— NFL (@NFL) November 11, 2025
This week, he draws a Washington defense that’s struggling just as badly, if not worse. The Commanders are allowing:
- 4.6 yards per carry on the season
- 5.3 yards per carry over their last three games
- 134.4 rushing yards per game overall
- 154 rushing yards per game over the last three
- They also rank 30th in Rush EPA and 18th in Rush Success Rate.
Achane is averaging 14.3 carries for 78 yards per game, and his rushing yard prop is sitting at 77.5 across several books. Normally, I avoid betting an over in back-to-back weeks after a big performance because the market usually corrects too aggressively. But in this case? The books still haven’t adjusted enough. The Commanders’ run defense is abysmal, and Miami’s offense is at its best when Achane is the focal point.
He’s going to get volume again – and the matchup is there to explode for another big outing.
Best Bet: De’Von Achane Over 77.5 Rush Yards (-113)
NFL Record: 59-46 (+5.23 units)
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