Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets: What better way to spend a Monday night than watching two 0-3 teams square off? Okay, sure, there are plenty of other things you could do besides tuning into Tua Tagovailoa vs. Justin Fields, but it’s football – and if you’re as obsessed with the sport as I am, you’ll be locked in for every snap.
And let’s be honest – sometimes the uglier the game, the more entertaining it becomes. Early in the season, with storylines swirling, coaches on the hot seat, and players battling for starting spots, these matchups can be just as compelling as the marquee ones.
The best way to get invested in a potentially mediocre game is to find a wager to get behind. Of course, that doesn’t mean betting just for the sake of it – we’re looking for a legitimate edge. Below, I’ll tell you where I believe I’ve found one with my Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets predictions and picks for Monday Night Football.
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Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets NFL Betting Insights
Can Justin Fields lean on his feet to guide the Jets to their first win?
Dolphins vs Jets Odds: It’s imperative to recognize where the lines opened and how they’ve moved in every game you’re betting. In a market as tough to beat as the NFL, that’s even more crucial. This matchup has seen a noticeable adjustment in the spread. Back in May, the Dolphins opened as high as 5.5-point favorites. Now, Miami is laying just -2.5.
If you’ve watched Miami’s first three games, the drop makes sense. The Dolphins have given up 31 or more points in every outing and have been outscored 97-56 overall.
To be fair, the Jets haven’t been much better, though their offense has at least shown flashes. They lost 34-32 to the Steelers, 29-27 at Tampa Bay, and turned in their worst effort in a 30-10 loss to Buffalo.
Despite the atrocities from both defenses, this total hasn’t moved from its opening line of 44.5.
Miami vs New York Predictions & Picks: Let’s dive a bit deeper into the numbers.
Defensive Metrics:
EPA/Play:
- MIA (31st)
- NYJ (28th)
Success Rate Allowed:
- MIA (32nd)
- NYJ (7th)
Both secondaries have struggled, with Miami ranking 31st and New York 30th in dropback EPA. Up front, though, the Jets have been far stronger, sitting 5th in rush success rate allowed compared to Miami at 22nd.
Here’s how the offenses stack up:
EPA/Play:
- MIA (23rd)
- NYJ (25th)
Success Rate:
- MIA (22nd)
- NYJ (15th)
Narrowing things down to the quarterbacks, it’s ugly on both sides, but Fields has been slightly more efficient. He ranks 25th in adjusted EPA per play compared to Tagovailoa at 32nd. In success rate, Fields sits 14th while Tagovailoa is 31st. Tua does get the edge in CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected), ranking 17th versus Fields at 32nd.
We know Fields isn’t an effective passer – his value comes from his mobility. Tagovailoa doesn’t bring that same element, avoiding scrambles whenever possible.
Based on those stats, the temptation might be to grab the points with New York. I’d be hesitant to do that, though. Both defenses have been atrocious, and despite the early-season numbers, I still trust Miami’s quarterback play and overall offensive weapons more.
The Dolphins showed some life last week against Buffalo and even had a chance to pull off the upset. It felt like a glimpse of what this team can be. No, they’re not a playoff contender and will likely finish near the bottom of the league, but they still hold an edge over the Jets.
If Miami does lose, it will be because of Justin Fields’ legs. Containing his athleticism is the key. That’s easier said than done, though.
Miami comes into this game blitzing at the highest rate in the NFL (41.1%). That pressure will force Fields to create with his legs and look for lanes to move the ball. He’s rarely efficient when confined to the pocket, so expect the Jets’ game plan to feature plenty of designed runs and scrambles.
The Dolphins’ track record backs it up: Daniel Jones rushed seven times for 26 yards and two scores, Drake Maye ran 10 times for 31 yards and a touchdown, and Josh Allen added 25 yards on just four carries last week.
Quarterbacks are consistently finding running lanes against this blitz-heavy Miami defense – and Fields is likely to do the same.
This leads me to betting Justin Fields over 8.5 rush attempts (-122) and for him to score a touchdown at +225 odds.
Fields has already shown his dominance on the ground, scoring twice against Pittsburgh while scrambling 12 times for 48 yards. Even in limited action versus Buffalo, he still managed five rushes for 49 yards.
Meanwhile, Braelon Allen has just four red-zone carries for 10 yards and one score, and Breece Hall has only two red-zone attempts for six yards with no touchdowns. Fields, on the other hand, carried the ball four times for 16 yards and found the end zone twice in that Steelers game.
He’s coming off his worst passing performance of the season, which makes it even more likely he leans on his legs. While I do lean toward the Dolphins pulling out their first win, the stronger edge lies with Fields’ rushing props.
Plays:
- Justin Fields Over 8.5 Rush Attempts (-122)
- Justin Fields Anytime TD (+225)
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