Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots: Both of these AFC East teams stumbled out of the gate in Week 1. In Foxborough, the Patriots fell 20-13 to Geno Smith and the Raiders. In Indy, the Dolphins were dismantled by Daniels Jones and the Colts, 33-8.
On paper the records are identical, but the outlooks feel worlds apart. New England is breaking in a young core under first-year head coach Mike Vrabel, so there’s at least a sense of growth and direction.
Miami, meanwhile, looks like it’s spiraling. The offense was lifeless, Tyreek Hill is frustrated and already surfacing in trade rumors, along with an ongoing domestic violence investigation involving him, and head coach Mike McDaniel’s seat grows hotter by the day.
This has shifted the line from Miami -2.5, to -1.5 and then back to -2.5.. The total opened at 45.5, but we’ve seen that fall to as low as 42.
How will each of these teams respond? I’ll tell you with my Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots picks and predictions.
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Miami Dolphins vs New England NFL Betting Insights
Can Tua get the Dolphins back on track?
Messy Miami: There was plenty of offseason chatter about Miami being a candidate for the league’s worst record – and about Mike McDaniel as an early favorite to be the first coach fired. Week 1 didn’t do anything to quiet that talk. Losing is one thing, but getting run off the field by a Daniel Jones–led Colts team that was considered one of the NFL’s most discombobulated teams only adds fuel to the fire.
Tua Tagovailoa had a nightmare performance: two interceptions, a lost fumble, and the worst passer rating of his career (51.7). His star receivers couldn’t bail him out either, as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for just eight catches and 70 yards.
On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins’ defense gave up 418 total yards and didn’t force a single turnover. That’s bad against anyone – but against an Indianapolis squad entering the season with more question marks than Miami? It’s flat-out embarrassing.
Settling In: When it comes to offseason chatter, the Patriots weren’t overlooked. Despite coming off a 4-13 season, fans, media, and even bettors expressed optimism about their outlook. Oddsmakers set their win total as high as 8.5 – a remarkable jump for a team that performed so poorly a year ago. The only major change? Bringing in Mike Vrabel to take over as head coach.
Sure, the Patriots were competitive in a lot of games, Maye looked serviceable and they do have one of the easiest schedules this season, but that’s still a ton of stock invested into an unproven group.
Regardless, they are most definitely in a better state than their upcoming opponent. The Patriots can live with a loss to a respectable Raiders squad – yes, they are fairly respectable at this point in time.
Week 1’s are always tricky spots, especially for younger teams trying new things and fitting pieces into the right places. In the long run, the Patriots should be fine. Heck, the road to that may even begin this Sunday.
I would lean toward New England if I had to pick a side, but we need to be careful with recency bias. I’m no fan of Miami and do think there’s a strong chance Coach McDaniel is the first to be fired, but I’d rather approach this matchup with more security.
That’s where the Patriots become a prime teaser option. When betting teasers, the goal is to target home favorites in the -7.5 to -8.5 range, or home/road underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5. A standard six-point teaser moves New England from +1.5 up to +7.5 – a much safer number to work with.
All that’s left is finding a dance partner. Some logical pairings this week include Seattle (+2.5 to +8.5), Indianapolis (+1.5 to +7.5), or Kansas City (+1.5 to +7.5).
Best Bet: My official play for this game comes in the prop department. Not only was their optimism for this Patriots team as a whole, but with a certain rookie: TreVeyon Henderson.
The Ohio State product impressed in the preseason and already looks like the more efficient option in New England’s backfield. In Week 1, Henderson ran it just five times but gained 27 yards at 5.4 per carry, while Rhamondre Stevenson managed only 15 yards on seven attempts (2.1 YPC).
It’s basically inevitable that Henderson will take over, but Vrabel also made it clear that they would ease Henderson into the role. Well, after a loss and data to back up the efficiency, I don’t see why that workload wouldn’t increase immediately.
We don’t need him to lead the team in carries, per se, we just need him to get at least eight of them.
The Colts pounded Miami’s front seven for 40 rushing attempts at four yards per clip last week. Sure, it was a blowout and only Week 1, but it still exposed clear issues in the Dolphins’ run defense. Henderson is in a great spot to eclipse a low number.
Play: TreVeyon Henderson Over 7.5 Rush Attempts (-145)
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