Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Chargers: What started as a promising season has quickly unraveled for the Los Angeles Chargers. Two weeks ago, they lost outright as 6.5-point favorites against the lowly Giants, then followed that up with a 27-10 home loss to the Commanders. To make matters worse, rookie running back Omarion Hampton, who had taken over as starter after Najee Harris’ season-ending injury, was placed on injured reserve. The backfield now belongs to Hassan Haskins and Kimani Vidal in a timeshare moving forward.
The schedule doesn’t offer much relief. While this week’s opponent is a struggling Miami Dolphins team fresh off their fourth loss of the season at Carolina (27-24), Los Angeles once again faces a grueling cross-country trip.
It’s been a demanding travel slate for Jim Harbaugh’s squad: opening in Brazil against the Chiefs, then primetime in Las Vegas against the Raiders, followed by a home date with the Broncos. From there, it was a trip east to face the Giants, back home for Washington, and now another East Coast swing to meet a desperate Dolphins team.
Still, if Miami is hungry, the Chargers should be starving. With legitimate playoff aspirations and the talent to back them up, Harbaugh’s group enters this matchup with even more urgency to right the ship.
Let’s breakdown this matchup further with my Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Chargers picks and predictions.
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Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Chargers NFL Betting Insights
Can the Miami Dolphins avoid their fifth loss of the season?
Matchup in Miami: Even without Tyreek Hill in Week 4, Tua Tagovailoa delivered a strong performance in Carolina, completing 27 of 36 passes for 256 yards with three touchdowns and no turnovers. Jaylen Waddle rose to the occasion, catching six of nine targets for 110 yards and a score. That duo will now face a Los Angeles defense ranked 4th in success rate and 8th in EPA per play allowed.
While the Dolphins’ passing game looked efficient, their defense completely collapsed. Miami gave up a staggering 206 rushing yards to Rico Dowdle on just 23 carries – an average of nine yards per attempt. Those are video-game numbers, the type you’d expect only from the league’s elite backs like Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry. The secondary held up better, limiting Bryce Young to 198 yards on 19 completions while forcing a turnover, but the ground game woes overshadowed it all.
That weakness is nothing new. Miami ranks 29th in rush EPA per play, 27th in rush success rate allowed, and is giving up 5.6 yards per carry – the second-worst mark in the NFL. Even with injuries gutting the Chargers’ backfield, this matchup could provide an opportunity for Los Angeles to generate much-needed production on the ground.
What felt more like an aberration was Miami’s success in the secondary. They benefited from facing one of the league’s weakest arms in Bryce Young, a far cry from the precision cannon Justin Herbert brings to the table. The Dolphins rank dead last in dropback success rate and 30th in dropback EPA allowed, making their pass defense one of the worst in the league. Los Angeles will be chomping at the bit to expose them.
Dolphins vs Chargers Picks & Predictions: The Chargers should bounce back here, but until they show more stability and get some relief in their schedule, I can’t trust them to cover bigger spreads, especially on long road trips. Last week looked like the vintage Chargers – finding ways to shoot themselves in the foot – so I’d rather not back them against the number. Instead, I’ll turn to their team total.
As poorly as Los Angeles has played the last two weeks, Miami’s defense is an even bigger liability. The Dolphins are allowing 29 points per game, and every opponent outside of the Jets has put up at least 27 against them. That’s the type of defense Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh’s group can exploit.
I’m not worried about the running back situation, the position is the most replaceable in the NFL, and Herbert should have time to find his rhythm and make the right throws against this secondary. Coming off back-to-back frustrating losses, this offense should deliver an inspired performance. That’s enough for me to back the Chargers’ team total over 23.5, which is available at -130 at some books.
Best Bet: Chargers Team Total Over 23.5 (-130) BetOnline
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