Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints
Saints head coach Kellen Moore has officially made a change at quarterback. Tyler Shough, the 26-year-old second-round pick, will take over for the struggling Spencer Rattler.
Shough replaced Rattler in the Saints’ last game against Tampa Bay, completing 17 of 30 passes for 128 yards with no touchdowns and one interception.
Now, he steps into a tough spot – a 14-point underdog matchup against the Los Angeles Rams and their formidable defense. How will Shough and the Saints hold up? I’ll break it down and share my insight with this week’s Los Angeles Rams vs. New Orleans Saints preview and prop bet.
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Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints NFL Betting Insights
How will Tyler Shough perform in his first career start?
Rams vs Saints Preview
The lone Saints victory this season came back on October 5, when they defeated the Giants 26-14. Outside of that matchup, New Orleans has dropped every game and sits at 1-7. The Rams, meanwhile, are 5-2, have won two straight, and are coming off a bye week. Their only losses came by a single score – a 33-26 defeat in Philadelphia and a 26-23 overtime loss at home against San Francisco. In their five wins, Los Angeles has an average margin of victory of 13.6 points.
Oddsmakers opened Sean McVay’s team as 13.5-point favorites with a total of 43.5. The current market consensus lists the Rams at -14, with the total hovering around 44.
What’s stood out most about this Rams team is their dominance on defense. They rank second in EPA per play, eighth in success rate allowed, and surrender the second-fewest yards per play (4.7). That’s a massive contrast to a Saints offense that ranks 29th in EPA per play, 22nd in success rate, and averages the third-fewest yards per play (4.6). Combine that with the overall talent gap, and it’s easy to see why the spread has ballooned this high.
Los Angeles isn’t just elite on defense – their offense, led by veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford, ranks third in success rate, ninth in EPA per play, and generates the fourth-most yards per play (5.9).
Early in the year, New Orleans looked like a scrappy team with a respectable defensive foundation, but that edge has worn off – unless they can rally around their rookie quarterback. The defense has leveled out to average overall, ranking 17th in EPA per play and 16th in success rate. They’re top-10 against the run in both metrics but just 22nd and 23rd against the pass.
So, where can we find an edge in this matchup?
Los Angeles vs New Orleans Prop Bet
Normally, in games with such large spreads, I struggle to find much value — but that’s not the case here. Coming off their bye week and facing an opponent they clearly outmatch, the expectation should be that the Rams win comfortably, likely by double digits.
New Orleans’ defense has regressed and could give up plenty of points. This one could get out of hand early. If that’s the case, there’s no reason for the Rams to have their 37-year-old quarterback slinging it for all four quarters. I’m targeting Matthew Stafford to stay under 33.5 pass attempts.
He’s averaging 34.6 per game, but that number is inflated by two outings where he threw 41 and 47 times. Outside of those, he hasn’t topped 33 attempts once. Now he’s in his biggest favorite role of the year, and the market expects him to go over a number he’s stayed under in five of seven games? I’ll gladly take the under.
Yes, the Saints’ run defense has been their strength, but the Rams will eventually break through and lean on the ground game. Stafford should throw consistently early to build a lead, but many of those completions could come on chunk plays that lead to quick scores – keeping his attempt count in check.
If Stafford is throwing over 33 times in this game, then the scrip has not gone according to plan for McVay’s crew.
Best Bet: Matthew Stafford Under 33.5 Pass Attempts (-118)
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