Los Angeles Rams vs Indianapolis Colts: The Rams are coming off not only a devastating outright loss, but one of the worst beats the betting world has seen in a long time.
Down 27-26 in the final seconds, kicker Joshua Karty lined up for a game-winning field goal. Bettors holding Rams +3.5 tickets felt secure – if the kick went through, Los Angeles would win outright, and if he missed, the cover was still safe.
But the absolute worst-case scenario unfolded. The kick was blocked, scooped up by Philadelphia’s Jordan Davis, and returned 61 yards for a touchdown.
From the Rams’ perspective, the game never should’ve come down to that. They led 26-7 in the third quarter before collapsing against the defending Super Bowl champs.
Now the question is how they’ll respond against the hottest team in the NFL. Let’s dive into it with my Los Angeles Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts picks and preview.
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Los Angeles Rams vs Indianapolis Colts NFL Betting Insights
Is Daniel Jones ready to face one of the better teams in the NFL?
Rams vs Colts Preview: Oddsmakers opened Los Angeles as high as a 6-point favorite back in May, with the total at 48.5. Fast forward to now, and the market has shifted dramatically – the Rams sit at -3.5, while the total has ticked up to 49.5.
The sizable line movement stems from Indianapolis’ surprising 3-0 start. Daniel Jones has somehow guided the Colts to that record while averaging 34.3 points per game. He’s been efficient, completing 71.6% of his passes for 816 yards with three passing touchdowns, three rushing scores, and no interceptions.
Of course, context matters. Those numbers have come against Miami, Tennessee, and Denver. Two of those teams – the Dolphins and Titans – could easily finish near the bottom of the league, and it wouldn’t be shocking if both franchises make coaching changes before the year is over.
As for Denver, they’ve already proven to be far less formidable than the public or media expected. I never bought into the hype and still don’t. That said, credit where it’s due: Jones putting up this kind of production under a new regime is still impressive.
However, the Colts are nowhere near as dominant as their numbers suggest. Week 4 marks their first true test, and it’s hard to envision it going well.
Indy’s stats are more a product of weak opponents than actual dominance. They rank 2nd in both offensive EPA per play and success rate, but the Rams aren’t far behind at 6th in each.
The real separation comes on defense, where Indianapolis is likely to be exposed. They currently sit 21st in success rate allowed and 11th in defensive EPA per play — numbers propped up by facing anemic offenses like Miami and Tennessee. Against the run, it’s even worse: the Colts rank 27th in rush EPA per play and 24th in rush success rate allowed. That sets up perfectly for Kyren Williams and rookie Blake Corum to carve them up.
That’s already a major concern for Shane Steichen’s defense, and it only gets tougher with the Rams’ weapons on the outside. Davante Adams has stepped in seamlessly, posting 13 receptions for 213 yards and two touchdowns through three games. Opposite him, Puka Nacua has picked up right where he left off, piling up 29 catches for 333 yards.
Rams vs Colts Picks: This veteran-laden Rams roster is built to take advantage of a vulnerable Colts defense, and you can bet Sean McVay will scheme up ways to exploit it.
Right now, most books list Los Angeles at -3.5, though the juice varies. Instead of the standard -110 on each side, many shops are shading Indy +3.5, hinting the line could dip to a flat -3.
I’ll be backing the Rams, but I’m holding out for the right price. Buying down to -3 at -125 isn’t worth it – I’d need closer to -120 to make that move. So I’ll wait for the market to adjust, then grab the Rams at the best value available.
Within the prop market, both Kyren Williams and rookie Blake Corum stand out. Williams’ rushing yards prop is sitting around 71.5 – which seems like a fair number. While I do think he’s in good shape to clear it, there isn’t quite enough of an edge. I’m more interested in where his rush attempts prop opens, as I could easily see him pushing 20 carries in this matchup.
Corum might offer more value. Through three games, he’s logged 14 carries for 99 yards (7.1 YPC) with a touchdown, and his workload has steadily climbed in each game from one to five to eight handoffs. If the Rams control this game late, he should see an expanded role.
Currently, his line is set at 19.5 – which he should be capable of clearing given the edge for him in this matchup.
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