Los Angeles Chargers vs Washington Commanders: Justin Herbert and the Chargers are looking to bounce back after losing outright as 6.5-point favorites last Sunday against Jaxson Dart and the Giants.
Washington, meanwhile, is just hoping to field a healthy enough roster to stay competitive. Quarterback Jayden Daniels has missed the last two games with a knee sprain. Backup Marcus Mariota filled in adequately in Week 3, guiding a 41-24 win over the Raiders before falling short in a 34-27 loss at Atlanta the following week.
Head coach Dan Quinn gave an update on Daniels:
“He had a strong workout here Saturday, and we’ll take today and tomorrow and work out his practice plan,” Quinn said. “We’ll go through the whole process with him this week, medically, how he feels, how he practices, and give you the updates Wednesday, as I know them and I thought just from a team standpoint.”
The Commanders are also monitoring the health of receivers Terry McLaurin, John Bates, and Noah Brown. On that front, Quinn noted, “I would say we’re all trending in the right space on there” in terms of those three guys.
To keep pace with a motivated Chargers team, Washington will need as many of its top playmakers available as possible.
Los Angeles opened as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 47.5. Since then, the line has shifted to Chargers -3, and the total has ticked up to 48.
Let’s dive deeper into this Week 5 matchup with my Los Angeles Chargers vs Washington Commanders predictions and picks.
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Los Angeles Chargers vs Washington Commanders NFL Betting Insights
Will Jayden Daniels be back and ready to face the Chargers on Sunday?
Lackluster LA: Yes, the Chargers should be upset about their loss to the New York Giants this past Sunday, as should any team that fell short. But in truth, it was a tough scheduling spot and not nearly as shocking as some have made it out to be.
I actually gave out Giants +6.5 last week, though I didn’t necessarily expect them to win outright. My reasoning was tied to what the Chargers had just gone through: three straight divisional games, including an international opener against the Chiefs, a primetime matchup in Las Vegas, and a grueling battle with the Broncos. After that stretch, they had to fly across the country to face a quarterback with little NFL tape and a roster motivated to rally around him.
Given that context, the loss doesn’t alter my long-term outlook on Los Angeles. The Chargers are still one of the league’s top teams, and I expect them to bounce back quickly.
Their defense ranks first in success rate and third in EPA per play allowed. We know Herbert can put together quality drives often, especially with rookie running back Omarion Hampton emerging, and third-year receiver Quentin Johnston finally breaking out, adding to a receiving corps that already features Keenan Allen and Ladd McConkey.
Washington Woes: The Commanders’ defense has some concerns. They rank 24th in overall EPA per play, 28th in dropback EPA, and 22nd in dropback success rate. That’s a shaky foundation against Justin Herbert, who could exploit this secondary for a big day.
Obviously we never want to assume anything, but based on Coach Quinn’s remarks and the betting market, I believe it’s reasonable to expect Daniels, and some of his receivers, to step back into action this Sunday.
How much of an impact will they have? Getting your starting quarterback back along with a slew of receivers is certainly immense, but what do the numbers tell us?
Through the first two weeks of the season, Daniels ranked 28th in adjusted EPA per play, 27th in success rate, and 26th in CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) among 34 qualified quarterbacks.
Daniels should improve as he settles back in, but it’s important to recognize that defenses now have a full season of film on him. Containing his dual-threat ability won’t be as difficult as it once was – especially for a Chargers defense that ranks among the league’s best.
Chargers vs. Commanders Predictions & Picks: With most of the market sitting at Chargers -3, I’m not eager to lay the chalk. If -2.5s were available around -120, I’d be more inclined to back Los Angeles. The Chargers are the better team across the board and should bounce back from last week’s dud.
Justin Herbert props also stand out as potential targets, though not many are posted yet. Washington is allowing nearly two passing touchdowns per game, and their secondary remains a glaring weakness. If the price on Herbert over 1.5 passing touchdowns wasn’t so steep, it would be an immediate consideration.
I’ll also be monitoring where his completions and passing yards props settle later in the week.
Overall, this sets up as a strong bounce-back spot for the Chargers, who should take care of business and return to the win column on Sunday.
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