Los Angeles Chargers vs Pittsburgh Steelers Preview & Picks (11/9)

Los Angeles Chargers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday Night Football features the 6-3 Los Angeles Chargers hosting the 5-3 Pittsburgh Steelers. Justin Herbert and the Bolts are looking for their third straight win, while 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers is aiming to keep things rolling after last week’s 27-20 win over the Colts.

The Chargers opened as 3-point favorites with a total of 45. Right now, most books are dealing Los Angeles at -2.5 with some heavy juice, and the total has dipped slightly to 44.5.

Let’s dive into the matchup with my Los Angeles Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers preview and picks.

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Los Angeles Chargers vs Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Betting Insights

Justin Herbert looks to lead his team to their third-straight win on Sunday night.

Chargers vs Steelers Preview

Pittsburgh’s identity has flipped this season. Under Mike Tomlin, this franchise has always been known for its tough, gritty defensive foundation – especially following the Ben Roethlisberger era. However, that side of the ball has faltered mightily this year. The Steelers are allowing 24.4 points per game (21st) and 5.6 yards per play (24th). Over the last three weeks, that figure has climbed to 6.2 yards per play allowed. They also rank 24th in both defensive EPA per play and success rate allowed.

So the question becomes: how much will they get exposed against a Chargers offense that ranks 9th in success rate and 12th in both EPA per play and yards per play (5.7)?

While the defense has dipped, it’s the offense – now led by future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers – that has shown some promise. Pittsburgh is scoring 25.3 points per game (12th) and sits 13th in EPA per play. The offense has stalled at times, but for the most part, it’s delivered when needed. Now the challenge is whether they can keep that going against a Jim Harbaugh-coached defense that ranks fourth in success rate and ninth in EPA per play allowed.

Los Angeles Chargers vs Pittsburgh Steelers Picks

I believe they’ll be able to. The Chargers’ defense is a solid group, but they also have plenty of gaps. They gave up 21 to the Giants in Jaxson Dart’s first start, then allowed 27 in back-to-back weeks against the Commanders and Dolphins, and even surrendered 20 to the lowly Titans this past Sunday. Their defensive numbers look a bit better than they should thanks to matchups against the Raiders – who they held to just 9 points – and the Vikings, who put up only 10 when Carson Wentz was playing through a severe injury. Outside of those two outliers, opponents are averaging 25 points per game against this defense.

Conversely, I don’t expect much resistance for Herbert and this offense, given how unstable Pittsburgh’s defense has been and the level of weapons Los Angeles has at its disposal.

I’m honestly surprised this total is as low as it is, and that the under has even taken money. I expected this number to sit closer to 46.5. Getting 44.5 feels like solid value. Yes, both teams can be frustrating to watch at times, and yes, primetime games tend to lean under, but this number just feels too short.

I’ll look for this one to land somewhere around 24–23, with the Chargers narrowly hanging on and extending their winning streak to three games.

Best Bet: Chargers vs Steelers Total Over 44.5 (-110)

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