Monday Night Football takes us to La La Land, where Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers host Jalen Hurts and the slumping Philadelphia Eagles.
Most sportsbooks opened Philly as 2.5-point favorites, with a few touching as high as -3.5. Early action has leaned toward the Chargers, pushing the Eagles down to a consensus -2. The total also saw movement, dropping from 43.5 to 41.5.
With Justin Herbert returning from hand surgery, the question becomes: can he do enough to keep this Chargers offense afloat against an Eagles team clawing to end its slide? I’ll break it all down with my Los Angeles Chargers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Monday Night Football prediction.
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Los Angeles Chargers vs Philadelphia Eagles Monday Night Football Prediction
How effective can Justin Herbert be with his hand injury?
Chargers vs Eagles Preview
Yes, in case you missed it, Justin Herbert underwent hand surgery this past Monday but is still expected to suit up on Monday night. The injury – a fractured left (non-throwing) hand – occurred last Sunday in the Chargers’ 31-14 win over the Raiders. He had a plate and multiple screws inserted into the hand.
It’s not an ideal scenario for any quarterback, especially one leading a team fighting for its postseason life. Los Angeles sits at 8-4, second in the AFC West, and while they’re firmly in the playoff hunt, their odds of catching Denver (11-2) for the division are slim. Jim Harbaugh’s crew has won four of its last five and is currently holding the No. 6 seed, wedged between the Bills and Texans.
While the Chargers are navigating their own injury issues, the Eagles aren’t much better off. Jalen Hurts might as well be playing hurt based on his recent form, but in reality Philadelphia is missing key pieces up front. Defensive tackle Jalen Carter will miss the game after undergoing procedures on both shoulders, and Pro Bowl tackle Lane Johnson is also out.
It’s a tough blow for a Philly team that has dropped two straight in brutal fashion – blowing a 21-0 lead to the Cowboys in a 24-21 loss, then getting embarrassed as seven-point favorites at home by the Bears, 24-15. They still lead the NFC East thanks to Dallas’ loss to Detroit on Thursday; the Eagles are 8-4, the Cowboys 6-6-1, and New York and Washington are already eliminated.
So how will Philly respond in another primetime spotlight after that Black Friday meltdown? Chicago gashed them on the ground, with rookie Kyle Monangai rushing 22 times for 130 yards and a touchdown, while veteran D’Andre Swift added 125 yards and a score on 18 carries in his revenge game. It was by far the worst showing against the run for what is usually a sturdy Eagles front.
They’ll try to improve on those run-defense numbers without their biggest weapon up front in Jalen Carter, and they’ll have to do it against a Chargers backfield getting a major reinforcement in Omarion Hampton.
That’s right – the stud rookie is set to return after missing the past seven games with an ankle fracture. His presence is a huge boost alongside fellow tailback Kimani Vidal, who’s coming off a 126-yard outing. The duo should give Los Angeles a steadier ground attack and help limit how much an injured Herbert needs to drop back and throw.
Philly still ranks 10th in overall EPA per play and 15th in success rate allowed, but they’ve slipped to 24th in rush success rate. They’re giving up 4.5 yards per carry (22nd), and that number has climbed to 4.8 over their past three games. In terms of overall yards per play, the Eagles allow 5.3 on the season, but that’s jumped to 5.7 across their last three. Still, despite the recent dip, this may turn into an opportune spot for their defense given Herbert’s injury situation.
On the flip side, the Chargers rank sixth in EPA per play and seventh in success rate this season. They excel against the pass, but – like the Eagles – struggle against the run. Los Angeles sits 15th in both rush success rate and rush EPA per play, and they surrender 4.5 yards per carry, which ranks 25th.
One major point of separation between these teams shows up in the red zone. The Eagles own the best red zone offense in football, scoring touchdowns on roughly 76% of their trips inside the 20. Defensively, they’re fifth, allowing TDs just 50% of the time. The Chargers lag behind: 24th on offense (51.2%) and 12th on defense (55.3%).
Chargers vs. Eagles Bet
Philadelphia enters this matchup with a few extra days of rest, which should matter against a Chargers team leaning on an injured quarterback. Having Justin Herbert on the field is obviously huge for LA, but I still expect some limitations. The Chargers handled their business last week despite his hand issue, but there were clear signs of regression – and that came against one of the worst teams in the league in the Raiders.
For the Eagles, this needs to be a game where they lean into the mobility of Jalen Hurts and the power of Saquon Barkley. After a historic 2,000-yard season, Barkley has naturally seen some regression, just as many backs do after hitting that milestone. Still, I expect one of his better outings of the year here.
The Chargers’ run defense has been leaky, allowing 4.5 yards per carry and ranking 15th in both rush success rate and rush EPA. They held Ashton Jeanty to 31 rushing yards last week, but the Raiders own one of the league’s worst offensive lines and were trailing throughout. Before that, Bhayshul Tuten, Travis Etienne and Jaylen Warren each cleared 70 rushing yards against this unit.
The Eagles should attack on the ground early and often, especially if they get out in front, which I expect them to do in this game.
My bets: I’m taking the Eagles moneyline (-130), along with Saquon Barkley over 68.5 rushing yards (-110).
I expect an inspired defensive effort from Philadelphia despite missing a key piece up front. Herbert being less than 100% is a real factor, and, in general, the Chargers have a tendency to complicate things and make costly mistakes. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those show up again tonight.
Look for the Eagles, and their best player, to get back on track against Los Angeles.
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NFL Record: 78-61-1 (+7.66 units)
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