Los Angeles Chargers vs Minnesota Vikings
It looks like Carson Wentz will once again be under center for the Minnesota Vikings as they make a short-week trip to Los Angeles to face the Chargers.
Both teams are coming off Week 7 losses and will look to bounce back under the primetime lights of Thursday Night Football.
Who holds the edge? Let’s break it down with my Los Angeles Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings preview and best bets.
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Los Angeles Chargers vs Minnesota Vikings NFL Betting Insights
Can Carson Wentz lead the Vikings to victory on Thursday Night Football?
Los Angeles vs Minnesota Preview:
After a promising 3-0 start against division opponents, Justin Herbert and the Chargers have gone 1-3 since. They’ve faced a grueling schedule – traveling overseas, going coast to coast, and opening the season with three straight divisional matchups – on top of dealing with key injuries on both sides of the ball. When you put all of that into perspective, it’s not entirely surprising that their early success has faded. With their bye week not coming until Week 12, this next four-game stretch is crucial. The Chargers should be favored in each of those contests, aside from possibly being close to a pick’em or slight underdog in Week 11 at Jacksonville.
Los Angeles’ defense had been the team’s backbone, but it completely unraveled last week when the Chargers hosted Daniel Jones and the Colts. They allowed 38 points and 6.9 yards per play in that loss. As a result, the defense has fallen to 19th in EPA per play, though it still ranks 10th in success rate allowed.
Against the pass, the Chargers have been solid – ranking fourth in dropback success rate and 10th in dropback EPA while giving up fewer than 10 yards per completion. They also rank fifth in opponent completion percentage (61.5%) and defend the red zone well, allowing touchdowns on just 50% of opponent trips – the sixth-best rate in the NFL.
Defending the run, however, has been a completely different story. Los Angeles is giving up 5.1 yards per carry – and 5.8 over its last three games – while ranking 27th in rush EPA and 24th in rush success rate. Opponents are averaging 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game against the Chargers’ front seven, the third-most in the league.
Will this Vikings offense led by Carson Wentz be able to generate the same success other teams have had against Jim Harbaugh’s defense? I wouldn’t get my hopes up. Minnesota ranks 26th in both overall offensive EPA per play and rush EPA, while sitting 25th in dropback EPA.
That said, Wentz hasn’t been bad, and head coach Kevin O’Connell is making the right call by sticking with him over McCarthy. Wentz ranks 10th in Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE), 11th in success rate, and 15th in EPA per play – not too shabby for a backup quarterback. I just think a short-week matchup against a ticked-off Chargers team is a tough spot to expect Wentz to thrive.
Chargers vs Vikings Bets
One player we should expect to perform well is Jordan Mason. Through six games, he’s totaled 380 rushing yards on 84 carries – an average of 4.5 yards per attempt – and has found the end zone four times. His rushing yard props haven’t been posted yet, but his touchdown market offers value, with his best price currently sitting at +115.
The Chargers’ biggest defensive weakness is against the run, allowing the third-most rushing touchdowns per game. Mason has been far more dependable than Wentz when the Vikings get inside the 10-yard line, and Minnesota should lean on that again. Wentz is just 3-of-8 for 10 yards and two touchdowns from that range, while Mason has scored four times on six carries. Given the matchup and red-zone tendencies, expect a heavy dose of Mason once the Vikings get near the goal line.
On the flip side, the Vikings boast one of the league’s top defenses – ranking fourth in overall EPA and sixth in success rate, but they’ve had their issues stopping the run, sitting 23rd in rush EPA and 18th in rush success rate. Against the pass, they’re third in both EPA and success rate, though it didn’t look like it last week when they allowed Jalen Hurts to throw for over 300 yards.
This is a big game for both teams, each desperate for a win to stay alive in their respective divisions. When breaking down the spread, it’s hard to find any major edges. Oddly enough, Wentz’s advanced metrics have actually been slightly better than Herbert’s – though not by much. But let’s be honest – the QB advantage still lies with Los Angeles, regardless of what those numbers say.
The coaching matchup feels like a coin flip, with maybe a slight edge to the younger, savvier Kevin O’Connell, while the defensive edge resides with Minnesota.
The problem is, can we really trust Carson Wentz on the road, on a short week, in prime time? I’m not sure I can get there and the betting market seems to agree. The Chargers opened -2.5 but have since ticked up to -3.5 in some spots, though -3s are still available. The total has also crept up from 43.5 to 44.5, which is interesting. I’d lean toward this being a lower-scoring game, and now that the total has crossed the key number of 44, the under becomes a bit more appealing. Both teams should look to emphasize the ground game, but it’s always risky banking on an under when there are so many explosive receivers capable of breaking a big play at any moment, which is what’s present throughout both of these offenses.
Outside of the Mason prop, I don’t have any other plays locked in yet. Once more props are posted, I may add some additional action. There are a few players on the Chargers’ offense who could be in position for strong outings, and I’ll be looking to capitalize on that. Make sure to check back in before kickoff, or tune into our show Any Given Wager on Thursday for our official plays and a full breakdown of the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Minnesota Vikings.
Best Bet:
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