Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders
In the AFC West, the 7-4 Chargers return from their bye week looking to secure a win and keep their postseason hopes alive as they host the 2-9 Raiders.
Can Las Vegas play spoiler to its division rival, or will Los Angeles take full advantage of the extra rest and come in well-prepared? I’ll break it down with my Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders preview and picks.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
You can also browse our recommendations for the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders Preview & Prop Bet
Can Geno Smith avoid getting sacked numerous times on Sunday?
Chargers vs Raiders Preview
Aside from actually winning this game, another battle will unfold between the quarterbacks – seeing which one can avoid getting sacked the most.
Geno Smith has been sacked 41 times this season, including 10 last Sunday alone against the Browns. Justin Herbert, who’s been dealing with an injured offensive line, has gone down 35 times this year.
Las Vegas has dropped five straight, and LA is coming off one of its worst losses of the season – a 35-6 defeat at Jacksonville.
As brutal as that loss was for Jim Harbaugh’s crew, the glass-half-full view is that it came right before their bye week. They had time to regroup, get healthier, and refocus for what’s ahead. After this Week 13 matchup with the Raiders, the schedule only gets tougher: a home meeting with the Eagles, back-to-back road games at Kansas City and Dallas, a home date with Houston, and then a trip to Mile High to face the Broncos.
The Chargers have to take advantage of this week’s game against a vulnerable Raiders squad, and on paper – they should have no issue doing so.
Las Vegas boasts the 32nd-ranked offense in EPA per play. The Raiders also sit 30th in both success rate and yards per play (4.6), and they’re 28th in red zone success rate (48.2%).
Geno Smith has been atrocious this season. Sure, his offensive line hasn’t helped him, but even when he’s had clean pockets, he hasn’t capitalized. Make no mistake – Smith has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this year.
A great soundbite from #Raiders QB Geno Smith😅
“I keep saying this— if something doesn’t look right out there, blame it on me…”
“If your kids mess up at school, blame it on me. If your car breaks down going to work, blame it on me.” pic.twitter.com/s5IFESIt6Z
— Arye Pulli (@AryePulliNFL) November 18, 2025
Among 32 qualified quarterbacks, he ranks 31st in EPA per play, 28th in success rate, and 22nd in CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected).
This Chargers defense, which ranks sixth in success rate and seventh in EPA per play allowed, should be chomping at the bit to face this lackluster Raiders offense.
Las Vegas’ defense has been the better side of its team, although that’s not saying much. The Raiders rank 20th in EPA per play allowed and 17th in success rate. They’re also 20th in opponent red-zone success rate (59.5%), allow 10.3 yards per completion (21st), and that number has risen to 11.7 over their past three games.
They do excel against the run, though – allowing just 3.7 yards per carry.
This game will fall on Justin Herbert’s shoulders. He’s completing over 66% of his throws and owns a 19–9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. It’s been an up-and-down year for the former Oregon Duck, as he ranks 11th in success rate, 17th in EPA per play, and 18th in CPOE.
Those aren’t the metrics you’d expect from Herbert at this stage of his career, but this matchup presents a chance to improve. The Raiders are allowing the 19th-most passing yards per game (218.3) and let opposing quarterbacks complete 66.7% of their attempts – the 24th-highest mark in the league.
Oddsmakers opened Los Angeles as 10-point favorites with a total of 41. The consensus now sits at Chargers -9.5 and a total of 40.5. Slight movement has come in on the Raiders and the under.
I expect the Chargers to get the job done and especially limit the Raiders’ offense, but I understand why bettors grabbed the double digits with Las Vegas. As bad as the Raiders have been, LA refuses to win anything seamlessly. They’re still banged up along the offensive line, and it’s a division game. That’s a lot of points to lay with this version of the Chargers.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders Prop Bet
Instead of trusting the Chargers to cover -9.5, why not put your faith in Herbert to throw over 1.5 touchdowns?
The Raiders allow 1.5 passing touchdowns per game (15th), and that number jumps to 2.0 over their last three contests. More importantly, as mentioned earlier, Las Vegas thrives against the run, giving up the second-fewest yards per carry. With Omarion Hampton still sidelined, the Chargers remain at a disadvantage in the backfield.
The good news is Herbert has plenty of weapons to throw to: Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston and Oronde Gadsden II. Los Angeles should have no issue moving the ball downfield, which should give Herbert multiple opportunities to find the end zone against this subpar secondary.
Best Bet: Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-109)
NFL Record: 70-53-1 (+8.63 units)
Still Didn’t Get Your NFL Fix?
Follow me on X @dannyburke5 for all my picks, analysis and plenty more. Also be sure to follow Betting News on ‘X’ and Twitch to catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day and check out our Free Expert Picks for every major sports league.
More NFL News
NFL Betting News
Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings Preview & Predictions (12/14)
NFL Betting News
Chasing Six | NFL Week 15 Anytime Touchdown Bets
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER