Los Angeles Chargers vs Indianapolis Colts
Out on the West Coast, the 4-2 Chargers will host the 5-1 Colts. Los Angeles is coming off a much-needed win that required a game-winning Cam Dicker field goal to seal a 29-27 victory over Miami, though they failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites.
Meanwhile, the Colts added another win but did so in worrisome fashion. They were laying -7.5 for most of the week before the line ballooned to -9.5 after it was announced that Jacoby Brissett would replace the injured Kyler Murray. That line shift proved faulty as the Cardinals pushed the Colts to the brink, and actually held the lead multiple times in the game before Indy escaped with a 31-27 win, capped by a late goal-line stand.
Despite posting a 5-1 record, there are still some skeptics surrounding Daniel Jones and the Colts – will they be able to prove the doubters wrong yet again, or will we see Indy’s true colors? I’ll tell you what to prepare for with my Los Angeles Chargers vs Indianapolis preview and picks.
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Los Angeles Chargers vs Indianapolis Colts NFL Betting Insights
Jonathan Taylor is primed for a big outing against this bottom-tier Chargers run defense.
Chargers vs Colts Preview
Back in May, when everyone thought the Colts would be toward the bottom of the barrel among NFL teams – they opened as 6-point underdogs for this game against the Chargers. The spread has since moved drastically, with Indianapolis now catching +1.5. The total also altered significantly, opening as low as 45.5, but now sitting around 48.5.
The shift in the spread is warranted, but does that mean it’s the correct bet?
The Colts have played four of their six games at home, with wins over the 1-5 Dolphins, 1-5 Titans, 2-4 Raiders, and 2-4 Cardinals – who were without Kyler Murray. Their most respectable win came in Week 2 against the Broncos, though it came with some good fortune. A late penalty gave them a second chance at a game-winning field goal, which they converted to win 29-28. Their lone loss came on the road against the Rams, 27-20.
As for Los Angeles, their path has been far more grueling. The Chargers have faced one of the toughest travel schedules in the league: opening in Brazil against the Chiefs, then heading to Las Vegas for a Monday night matchup, before returning home to face their third straight divisional opponent, the Denver Broncos. In Week 4, they traveled cross-country to face the Giants and fell 21-18 in Jaxson Dart’s first start, then went back home to lose 27-10 to the Commanders in Jayden Daniels’ return game. From there, they hit the road again – all the way to Miami – where they edged out the Dolphins 29-27 on a last-second field goal.
I’m exhausted just writing that out – and I can only imagine how taxing that’s been on the players. Sure, they travel in comfort, but that’s still an immense amount of mileage covered in a short stretch, compounded by the loss of key contributors along the way.
The Chargers’ defense remains a clear strength, ranking fourth in success rate and eighth in EPA per play allowed. They’ve been stout against the pass but continue to struggle against the run, giving up five yards per carry while sitting 23rd in rush EPA per play and 20th in rush success rate. That’s a concern with one of the league’s premier running backs, Jonathan Taylor, and a mobile dual-threat quarterback like Daniel Jones coming to town.
On the other side, Indianapolis has its own defensive shortcomings. Even with a schedule filled with underwhelming opponents, the Colts have shown cracks, ranking 22nd in overall success rate and 31st in rush success rate allowed.
The Chargers, meanwhile, have had to adjust after losing both of their starting running backs, but Kimani Vidal stepped up in a big way last week – rushing 18 times for 124 yards (6.9 YPC) and catching three passes for 14 yards and a touchdown.
From an analytical standpoint, Daniel Jones has been the more efficient quarterback this season, ranking first in success rate and third in adjusted EPA per play. Justin Herbert, by comparison, ranks 19th and 18th in those respective categories. Jones’ rise has been impressive, and much of that credit belongs to head coach Shane Steichen for tailoring the offense to his strengths. But let’s not kid ourselves – Herbert is the better overall quarterback. As much as I value advanced metrics, they have to be taken with a grain of salt. With that being said, while Herbert may be the superior long-term option, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll outperform Jones in this particular matchup.
Los Angeles vs Indianapolis Props
I’m very tempted to side with the Chargers at this discounted number, but their demanding travel schedule, mounting injuries, and inability to win comfortably give me pause. On the other hand, while the Colts have earned my respect, they’ve also benefited from one of the easier schedules in the league. That’s not their fault, but it does make it harder to gauge their true identity.
The total initially looked like the safer play, but the market has already adjusted heavily upward, leaving little value. Betting the over now would just be chasing steam at a worse number. If 47s were still on the board, I’d consider a play there, but that ship has sailed.
Instead, I’m targeting the prop market with a bet centered around Daniel Jones. The Chargers’ defensive struggles have primarily come against the run – they rank 23rd in rush EPA per play and 20th in success rate, allowing five yards per carry. They’ve given up seven rushing touchdowns this season compared to just five through the air, and no opposing quarterback has thrown for more than one touchdown against them. In fact, Los Angeles ranks third in fewest opponent passing touchdowns per game (0.8).
Given how weak their run defense has been, and with Jonathan Taylor (seven rushing touchdowns) and Daniel Jones (four rushing touchdowns) both capable of capitalizing on that vulnerability in the red zone, I expect that trend to continue. This matchup sets up perfectly for Indianapolis to attack on the ground rather than rely on Jones’ arm.
Best Bet: Daniel Jones Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125) BetOnline
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