Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos: An AFC West matchup takes place just outside of Los Angeles, where the Chargers play host to the Broncos.
Justin Herbert and company are feeling the momentum seep into their locker room after a 2-0 start, while Bo Nix and his unit may be a bit rattled after a heartbreaking loss last week and an ugly win the week before.
The Chargers opened as 1-point favorites with a total of 43.5. The line has since climbed as high as -3, though there are still -2.5s available with juice attached. Meanwhile, the total has ticked up and is now sitting between 45.5 and 46.5 across the market.
How should we approach this divisional showdown? Let me tell you with my Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos picks and predictions.
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Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos NFL Betting Insights
Can Bo Nix flip things around in Denver, following a gruesome loss?
Team Identities: When I previewed the Chargers ahead of their Week 2 Monday Night Football showdown with the Raiders, I wrote: “This Chargers team has been building toward stardom for years, and if Week 1 was any indication, they might finally be on the verge of becoming a powerhouse.”
Los Angeles backed that up with a 20-9 win over Las Vegas, adding more conviction to that claim. There were some hiccups along the way, but ultimately the Chargers handled their business, got the win, and covered the number.
The biggest setback is Khalil Mack landing on injured reserve with an elbow injury. Fortunately, the Chargers have enough depth and firepower to fill the void in his absence.
I feel comfortable in my assessment of Jim Harbaugh’s crew, but I can’t say the same for Sean Payton’s team. In classic NFL fashion, there are always a couple of squads that seemingly come out of nowhere or drastically exceed expectations. That was the Denver Broncos last year. After that overachieving season, they’ve turned into a public darling — with bettors loading up on their futures and fantasy players flocking to draft Bo Nix.
Seldom do those kinds of teams actually live up to the hype. It’s a tale as old as time in the NFL.
Side note: the Washington Commanders are another example of this.
The Broncos opened their season with an ugly, unconvincing — and perhaps undeserving — 20-12 win at home over rookie quarterback Cam Ward and the Titans. In Week 2, they fell at the buzzer to the Colts, 29-28. For a moment it looked like Denver had escaped with a win, but a late penalty gave Indy another shot, and they converted on the game-winning kick.
Regardless, it was a sloppy effort from a team that boasted one of the league’s top defenses last year. Sure, Daniel Jones may be more competent in a new environment, but allowing him to go 23-of-34 for 316 yards and a touchdown is inexcusable for a defense of Denver’s caliber.
Chargers vs Broncos Picks: It seems the betting market is still putting stock into Denver, waiting for them to return to last year’s form. At the same time, it’s underrating this Chargers team, expecting them to play down to their opponent as they’ve done many times before.
The injury to Khalil Mack, along with the shorter week, is likely the reason why not every book has Los Angeles laying -3 or more.
I’ll gladly take advantage of this spread sitting below the key number of -3. I refused to buy into the Broncos hype in the preseason, and through two games they’ve shown exactly why that skepticism was warranted.
On the other side, I’ve been waiting for this Chargers team to showcase its full potential. They’re disciplined, strong in the trenches, stout defensively, and now boast a deep group of receivers that Herbert can trust.
Offensively, the Chargers hold a clear edge – they rank 1st in offensive success rate and 9th in EPA per play. The Broncos, meanwhile, sit much further down at 20th and 18th in those same categories. The quarterback comparison only widens the gap: Justin Herbert ranks 2nd in success rate and 6th in EPA per play, while Bo Nix comes in 18th across the board. You didn’t need those metrics to recognize Los Angeles has the better quarterback and overall offense, but the data reinforces it.
The edges are clearly with Los Angeles, and I’m more than willing to capitalize on a timid market.
Play: Chargers -2.5 (-115)
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