Las Vegas Raiders vs Dallas Cowboys
What better way to spend your night than watching the 2-7 Raiders host the 3-5 Cowboys? That’s what we’ve got lined up for Monday Night Football in NFL Week 11.
On paper, it’s not the most enticing matchup. But with chaos comes opportunity, and that’s what we’re hunting for in the betting market. Let’s dive into my Las Vegas Raiders vs Dallas Cowboys preview and props.
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Can Geno Smith finally get his offense going against one of the league’s worst defenses?
Raiders vs. Cowboys Preview
Can Las Vegas snap its three-game losing streak tonight? If there’s a team to do it against, Dallas might be the best option.
The Cowboys are giving up the second-most points per game (30.8) and the 29th-most yards per play (6.1). They also rank dead last in success rate, 31st in EPA per play and 30th in defensive red-zone efficiency (69.4%).
There’s no way around it – this Dallas defense is flat-out horrific.
What’s nearly as bad, though, is the Raiders’ offense. They rank 30th in both EPA/Play and success rate, while averaging just 15.4 points per game (31st). They’re posting 4.8 yards per play (29th), a number that’s dipped to 4.1 over their last three contests. They’re also 28th in red-zone efficiency (47.8%).
Seeing how equally poor both teams are on those sides of the ball is part of what could make this trainwreck of a matchup oddly entertaining.
If we flip things and look at the Dallas offense vs. the Las Vegas defense, we get a different story.
The Cowboys rank fifth in offensive EPA/Play and eighth in success rate, while averaging the third-most points per game (29.2).
They’ll face a Raiders defense that isn’t among the league’s elite, but it’s a group that plays hard for all four quarters. They’ve shown flashes and can produce in key moments.
Still, they rank 18th in success rate and 19th in defensive EPA/Play allowed. They’re giving up just 5.1 yards per play (T-8th) and allowing opponents to score a touchdown in the red zone 58.8% of the time (15th).
The biggest discrepancy comes at the most important position: quarterback. Dak Prescott has a clear edge over Geno Smith. Here’s how they stack up in advanced metrics this season:
Dak Prescott
• EPA/Play – 8th
• CPOE – 12th
• Success Rate – 15th
Geno Smith
• EPA/Play – 32nd
• CPOE – 25th
• Success Rate – 24th
Smith has been exceptionally bad, and he might prove to be the difference-maker in tonight’s matchup.
But perhaps he doesn’t need to be…
Las Vegas Raiders vs Dallas Cowboys Props
The Cowboys boast one of the league’s worst run defenses, sitting 32nd in rush success rate and 29th in rush EPA per play allowed. They’re giving up 4.8 yards per carry (27th), a number that has climbed to 5.1 over their last three games.
Raiders rookie running back Ashton Jeanty has had a relatively underwhelming season for a top-ten pick, though it’s hard to blame him given how poor this offensive line and offense have been overall. He’s rushed for 547 yards on 143 carries (3.8 ypc), with four rushing touchdowns and three receiving scores.
His only 100-yard performance came back in Week 4 against the Bears, when he posted 138 yards on 21 attempts. Outside of that, he hasn’t cracked 75 yards. Dallas, however, has allowed five different running backs to top 75 yards this season.
Jeanty’s rushing yards prop sits below that threshold. BetOnline has him listed at 64.5 with -114 juice to the over. While I lean strongly toward the over, the concern is game script. If Geno Smith continues to struggle sustaining drives and the Cowboys’ offense starts piling on points, Las Vegas may be forced to abandon the run – limiting Jeanty’s opportunities on the ground.
The stronger edge with Jeanty lies in the passing game. He’s averaging 2.6 receptions on 3.3 targets for 15 receiving yards per game this season. His receiving prop is posted at 16.5 (-112), and he’s surpassed that number only three times, but his usage has quietly been trending upward. Over his last five games, he’s averaging 3.2 receptions on 4.4 targets for 23.2 receiving yards per game.
He now faces a Cowboys defense allowing roughly five receptions and over 45 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs. That sets up well for Jeanty to hit his recent averages – and potentially exceed them.
This is the prop to attack. His receiving yards offer a cleaner number and a stronger path to success than his rushing line.
Best Bet: Ashton Jeanty Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
NFL Record: 62-47 (+7.15 units)
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