Las Vegas Raiders vs Cleveland Browns Preview & Prop Bet (11/23) | Side with Shedeur?

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Shedeur Sanders will make his first career start. See how to bet the game with our Las Vegas Raiders vs Cleveland Browns preview & prop bet.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Cleveland Browns

It’s finally happening – rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders will make his first NFL start for the Browns this Sunday in Las Vegas against the Raiders.

Sanders took over in the late stages of last week’s 23-16 loss to Baltimore, but now – with a full week of prep and a far weaker opponent on deck – the question becomes: can bettors trust him to get the job done?

I’ll break it all down in my Las Vegas Raiders vs Cleveland Browns preview and prop bets.

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Las Vegas Raiders vs Cleveland Browns Preview & Prop Bet

Shedeur Sanders will make his first career start. See how to bet the game with our Las Vegas Raiders vs Cleveland Browns preview & prop bet.

What should we expect from Shedeur Sanders in his first career start?

Raiders vs Browns Preview

With the news of Sanders starting, sportsbooks reacted quickly. The Raiders opened as three-point favorites and were promptly bet up to -4. The total moved as well, opening around 37 before dropping to 36.

Clearly, expectations for offense are low – and for good reason. There’s uncertainty surrounding Sanders’ readiness, and Geno Smith has been brutal this season, and will be facing one of the league’s toughest defenses.

First, let’s talk Shedeur. Plain and simple – he stunk. He attempted 16 passes, completed just four for 47 yards, threw an interception, and added 16 rushing yards on three scrambles.

How much can we take from that tiny sample? That’s the real question. Social media has been busy debating whether he was given a fair shake without first-team practice reps. Analysts and former players have weighed in from every angle. But ultimately, none of that matters as much as how he handles this week’s preparation, and how he adapts and responds on the field this Sunday.

Let’s be honest, if you’re Cleveland, there aren’t many opponents you’d rather debut Sanders against than the circus act that is the Las Vegas Raiders.

Pete Carroll’s crew has dropped four straight, and their most recent win came five weeks ago against the 1-9 Tennessee Titans – a team starting a rookie quarterback that fired its coach midseason. Las Vegas mustered just 20 points in that game, but did hold Tennessee to 10.

The Raiders are also coming off a Monday Night Football loss, putting them on a short week after giving up 33 points to the Cowboys.

Now, Las Vegas’ defense won’t look as bad as it did Monday – Dallas has a legitimate offense, and Cleveland doesn’t come close. For the most part, the Raiders’ defense is serviceable. Below average? Sure. But it’s not why they’re a mess this season. The blame falls on the coaching and the offense.

Las Vegas ranks 24th in defensive success rate and 23rd in EPA per play allowed. However, they’re giving up only 5.2 yards per play (11th), a number that’s dipped to 4.9 over their last three outings, including Monday night’s debacle.

Still, outside of Maxx Crosby, this unit continues to underperform, and we’ll likely see a better version of Sanders with a full week of prep.

On the flip side, Geno Smith has looked just as bad – if not worse – than Sanders did in his limited action. He’s led the Raiders to a ranking of 30th in both EPA per play and success rate. They average the third-fewest yards per play at 4.7, a number that’s fallen to 4.3 over their last three games.

Among 35 qualified quarterbacks this season, Geno ranks 32nd in EPA per play and 25th in both success rate and CPOE.

I’d be shocked if those numbers improve against a Browns defense that’s second in success rate allowed and fifth in EPA per play. Cleveland’s defense has been terrific, and that should continue against one of the league’s worst offenses.

It’s no surprise this total is so low.

And honestly, I find myself chuckling a bit while handicapping this matchup. On one hand, I’m tempted to grab the +4 with Cleveland, given how elite their defense is and how awful the Raiders offense has been. On the other hand…do I really want to put my hard-earned money on a completely unproven commodity in Shedeur Sanders?

Maybe not on the side – but perhaps with a prop.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Cleveland Browns Prop Bet

How about betting Shedeur Sanders to complete over 15.5 passes on Sunday? Las Vegas ranks 23rd in opponent completion percentage, allowing quarterbacks to complete 67.4% of their throws, and they sit 21st in completions allowed per game at 22.3. Those averages may feel a bit unreliable given the situation with Sanders, but if the Raiders play with a lead, he’ll be forced to throw.

There’s no doubt the Browns will emphasize their ground game early, but that actually plays into the strength of this Raiders defense. They allow the second-fewest yards per carry (3.8) in the league. Once Las Vegas slows down Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland will have no choice but to lean into the passing game. And I’d expect the Browns to call safer, controlled designs to get Sanders comfortable – the type of throws that can help him clear such a modest number.

It’s not the most appealing prop on the board, I get that. But this feels like a solid buy-low opportunity and I’m willing to invest to find out if that sentiment comes to fruition.

Best Bet: Shedeur Sanders Over 15.5 Pass Completions (-103)

NFL Record: 63-47 (+8.15 units)

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