Las Vegas Raiders vs Chicago Bears: The line in this game has been bouncing around like a ping pong match, with the spread crossing zero multiple times. Back in May, the Bears opened as 1.5-point favorites. Last week, momentum shifted to the Raiders, who became slight favorites. After Ben Johnson’s offense lit up Dallas, Chicago briefly moved back to a small favorite. Since then, however, the number has settled in with Las Vegas laying between -1 and -1.5.
The total has seen notable movement as well, opening at 45.5 before climbing to 47.5.
Will Chicago’s offense continue its upward climb in Sin City, or can the Raiders take advantage of an injury-riddled Bears defense? Let’s dive into my Las Vegas Raiders vs. Chicago Bears picks and predictions.
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Las Vegas Raiders vs Chicago Bears NFL Betting Insights
Geno Smith will be set up for success against a weak Bears secondary in NFL Week 4
Defensive Doubts: Injuries continue to plague the Bears’ defense, and it’s showing in the numbers. Chicago is giving up the most yards per play in the league (6.7), ranking 30th in defensive success rate and 26th in EPA per play allowed.
Their biggest issue remains the run game, where they’re surrendering 5.5 yards per attempt – second-worst in the NFL. That opens the door for rookie back Ashton Jeanty to make an impact (more on him later).
The secondary isn’t in much better shape. Top corner Jaylon Johnson is out, while Kyler Gordon and linebacker T.J. Edwards are questionable. That could allow Geno Smith to find a rhythm against a depleted unit. Smith hasn’t been sharp to start the year – just 63% completions with four touchdowns and four picks – but the matchup is favorable.
On the other side, Caleb Williams has shown steady progress. He’s also at 63% completions, though with seven touchdowns to only one interception, plus 97 rushing yards and a score. The Raiders’ defense has struggled against the pass, ranking 27th in dropback EPA, 21st in dropback success rate, and giving up 11.1 yards per completion (28th).
Where Las Vegas does excel is up front. Led by Maxx Crosby, they’ve built a strong run defense, which could complicate things for Chicago in the red zone.
With holes on both defenses and playmakers on each side, it’s no surprise the total has been bet up. While I lean toward the over, the value has slipped a couple points, so I’ll pass on making it an official play. Instead, here’s where my money will be…
Raiders vs Bears Picks: I told you I’d be getting to Ashton Jeanty, and here’s how I’m doing so.
I’m backing him to score a touchdown at -140. The price is a bit steep, but this is the right spot. Jeanty has been held back by shaky offensive line play and tough defensive matchups, but Chicago doesn’t bring a strong front seven.
The Bears’ track record speaks for itself: Aaron Jones caught a touchdown in Week 1, both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery found the end zone in Week 2, and Javonte Williams gashed them for 7.6 yards per carry last week. Las Vegas is eager to get its first-round rookie rolling, and this matchup sets up perfectly.
My second play goes to Caleb Williams: over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100). As I noted, the Raiders rank 27th in dropback EPA, 21st in dropback success rate, and are allowing 11.1 yards per completion (28th).
Williams has already thrown four touchdowns against Dallas, two against Detroit, and one versus Minnesota. Each week, he looks more comfortable in Ben Johnson’s scheme and this is another defense he should be able to exploit.
Plays:
- Ashton Jeanty Anytime Touchdown (-140)
- Caleb Wiliams Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+100)
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