After a tough Week 6, Kate’s Prop Shop bounced back in a big way, going 2-1 in Week 7 to push our season record to 12-6 overall — comfortably in the green. Apparently, I can’t stay away from running back props — or maybe that’s just where the sharp value’s been hiding early in the season. Either way, I’m sticking with what’s working. I’ve got a few more rushing props circled for Sunday, featuring two of the best backs in football: Jonathan Taylor and Bijan Robinson.
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Falcons RB Bijan Robinson O88.5 Rushing Yards vs. Dolphins (BetOnline, -114)
Miami’s defense has been about as bad as it gets against the run this season, ranking dead last in the NFL and giving up 159.3 rushing yards per game. That’s a nightmare matchup against an Atlanta offense that leads the league in rushing at 136.3 yards per game. Not to mention Bijan Robinson is having the best season of his young career. He’s been in peak form lately, piling up 285 yards on 50 carries over his last three games—an impressive 5.7 yards per attempt. With the Falcons committed to establishing the ground game and the Dolphins showing zero ability to stop it, Robinson should have every opportunity to blow past this number.
Buccaneers WR Tez Johnson O3.5 Receptions vs. Saints (BetOnline, +107)
Mike Evans is sidelined and likely out of the season. Chris Godwin is still banged up and isn’t expected to play on Sunday. Things are fairly thin a receiver for the Bucs, which means there’s extra volume to go around in Tampa Bay’s passing game and Tez Johnson looks poised to benefit. Fellow receiver Emeka Egbuka will likely draw most of the Saints’ defensive focus, which should free Johnson up for plenty of short and intermediate looks. He saw nine targets last week, showing growing trust from his quarterback. Three catches feels well within reach in what could be a high-percentage passing script for the Bucs.
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor O100.5 Rushing Yards vs. Titans (BetOnline, -114)
Jonathan Taylor shredded this Titans defense for 102 yards and three touchdowns back in Week 3, and there’s no reason to think he won’t do it again. Tennessee has been brutal against the run, allowing the third-most rushing yards and attempts in the NFL, along with a league-high 12 rushing touchdowns. The Colts’ offensive line has been mauling in recent weeks, and Taylor’s workload continues to climb as Indy leans more heavily on its ground game. The matchup, history, and game script all line up for another big day, so don’t be surprised if Taylor not only clears this number but finds the end zone multiple times again.
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