I was basically on a self-appointed bye week last week, so no Week 14 recap. And if we’re being real, Week 13 didn’t exactly earn a gold star either, limping to a 1–2 finish
Even with the stumble, we’re sitting at a strong 22–14 on the season. Now we’re jumping straight into Sunday’s Week 15 slate with three plays I feel good about: two running backs and a wide receiver ready for solid matchups.
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Ravens RB Derrick Henry Over 88.5 Rushing Yards vs. Bengals (Lucky Rebel, -110)
If there were ever a spot to trust Derrick Henry, it’s this one. Cincinnati has been garbage against the run, especially at home, giving up more rushing yards per game in their own building than any team in the league. They also sit bottom-five in rushing touchdowns allowed, which usually signals a defense getting bullied at the line of scrimmage.
Henry’s box score from two weeks ago against these same Bengals doesn’t look impressive with just 60 yards, but don’t let that fool you. He averaged 6 yards per carry in that game. Baltimore just failed to feed him. With Lamar Jackson clearly not at full strength, the Ravens don’t have the luxury of leaning on a banged-up quarterback to run the offense. They need a steady ground game, and Henry is exactly the guy to provide it.
Bengals RB Chase Brown Over 74.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards vs. Ravens (Lucky Rebel, -115)
If there’s one constant with Cincinnati’s offense lately, it’s that Chase Brown finds a way to get his touches and has turned them into real production. He cleared 78.5 in the first meeting with Baltimore and didn’t just slightly go over it… he smashed it with 113 total yards. That wasn’t a fluke either. He’s topped 100 total yards in six of his last seven, so this number is sitting way lower than his actual role and efficiency suggest.
And even with Joe Burrow back, Brown’s workload hasn’t evaporated. If anything, Burrow’s presence helps keep the box lighter and gives Brown more space underneath as a pass option. Baltimore’s defense has been questionable at best, and they give up chunk plays to backs who can catch. Plus, without Tee Higgins, Brown might be asked to do a bit more in the passing game.
Rams WR Puka Nacua Longest Reception Under 29.5 Yards vs. Lions (Lucky Rebel, -115)
This number has crept up from the 25.5 we saw most of the season, and while an under might sound a little crazy, I think it’s the right side. Nacua has cleared this in most games, sure, but despite all the injuries to Detroit’s secondary, it’s one of the stingiest teams in the league at preventing explosives. They’ve allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to wideouts, yet they’re not allowing a ton of deep shots. The Lions haven’t allowed a single reception longer than 14 yards in their last five games. With the Lions forcing everything underneath and tackling well, this is a rare week where the under on Nacua’s longest catch actually makes more sense than trying to ride the season-long trend.
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