After face-planting with a 0–3 record in Week 11, we punched right back with a clean 3–0 sweep in Week 12. Drake Maye delivered, our under on Ashton Jeanty hit, and Derrick Henry handled the rest. We’ll take our lumps when they come, but the one thing we haven’t done this season? Stack losing weeks.
That puts us at 21–12 on the year, and we’re rolling that momentum straight into Sunday’s Week 13 slate with plays on Matthew Stafford, Jonathan Taylor, and TreVeyon Henderson. Let’s keep the heater alive.
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Rams QB Matthew Stafford Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns vs. Rams (BetOnline, +150)
I’m not going to overthink this one. Matthew Stafford is in the midst of an MVP season, and that isn’t slowing down against the Carolina Panthers. Stafford has thrown at least three touchdowns in four of his last five game,s with four touchdowns in two of those, and five in another. The Panthers’ passing defense in league average, giving up 211.2 yards through the air per game and 14 passing touchdowns on the season. Stafford is going to continue to put up numbers in hopes of building his MVP case. Plus, we get some good plus-money on this one.
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor Under 87.5 Rushing Yards vs. Texans (BetOnline, -114)
Jonathan Taylor has been a machine this year, ripping off 108.8 rushing yards per game and carrying Indy’s offense for long stretches. He’ll still be a major factor Sunday, but expecting another monster outing feels like pushing it against this Texans front. Houston is holding opponents under 100 rushing yards per game, and this defense has only improved as the season’s progressed. They’re more disciplined at the point of attack and they don’t give up easy chunk plays. Taylor can still have a strong day and fall short of this number, and that’s what I’m betting on.
Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts vs. Giants (BetOnline, -126)
TreVeyon Henderson is officially the lead back in New England. Even with Rhamondre Stevenson returning last week, Henderson still dominated the workload, handling 65% of the carries and ripping off 7.5 yards per carry against one of the toughest run defenses in the league in the Cleveland Browns. Now he gets the softest landing spot imaginable. The Giants are giving up a league-worst 157.2 rushing yards per game, and they’ve been gashed for volume as much as efficiency. Fifteen carries are well within reach.
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