Kate’s Prop Shop: The Best Props for Week 12 in the NFL

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We just took our first real punch of the season with a full 0–3 sweep in the wrong direction. Woody Marks never found daylight and finished nearly 20 yards short of his rushing prop. Josh Jacobs got banged up early against the Giants and never recovered, logging only seven carries. And Caleb Williams… well, he delivered another late-game dagger but couldn’t quite clear his prop.

Even with the setback, we’re still 18–12 on the year, which is a strong position heading into Week 12. Time to get back on the right side of the column.

For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.

You can also browse our recommendations for the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.

Patriots QB Drake Maye Over 255.5 Passing Yards vs. Bengals (BetOnline, -114)

Drake Maye walks into one of the softest matchups he’ll see all season, which points to another big day through the air. Cincinnati’s pass defense has been a disaster, ranking tied for 30th in the league, while allowing 261.7 passing yards per game. They’ll continue to be without their best pass rusher in Trey Hendrickson, which only benefits the Pats offense. Maye has had a phenomenal season, leading the NFL with 2,836 passing yards through 11 games and is averaging 257 per outing with a league-best 113.2 passer rating. He’s been carving up far better defenses than this, and with time in the pocket and weapons that can win downfield, this is a spot where he should comfortably clear his number.

Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty Under 57.5 Rushing Yards vs. Browns (BetOnline, -115)

Cleveland is 14th in run defense, but that number doesn’t really tell the full story. Early in the season the Browns smothered every back they faced. Lately, they’ve run into a tougher stretch with guys like Derrick Henry, Breece Hall, and TreyVeon Henderson having success against them due to running behind competent offensive lines. Ashton Jeanty may have talent, but he’s not operating in that same environment right now. The Raiders offensive line is the real problem. They’re not generating any push, they’re losing early downs, and they’re giving Jeanty almost no clean reads or lanes to build momentum. Cleveland’s front thrives on penetration and chaos, so Jeanty is probably getting contacted at or behind the line more often than not. Unless the Raiders somehow flip the script and play from ahead, which feels highly unlikely, this sets up as a grind-it-out, low-efficiency night.

Raven’s RB Derrick Henry O17.5 Rushing Attempts vs. Jets (BetOnline, -115)

Derrick Henry’s workload has finally stabilized, and the volume spike less of a fluke and more of what we can expect to see going forward. After a sluggish start to the year, he’s now topped 100 rushing yards in two of his last four games, and that surge has coincided directly with Lamar Jackson’s return. Defenses can’t load the box the same way when they have to account for Lamar’s legs, and Henry is taking full advantage. The volume bump is undeniable. Over the last five games, Henry is averaging 20.4 carries per contest after sitting at just 12.8 through the first five weeks. When the Ravens get a lead, they’re leaning on Henry to salt away drives and shorten games.

The matchup also tilts heavily in his favor. The Jets rank 23rd in run defense, giving up 131 yards per game, and they’ve struggled with power backs who get downhill quickly. They’re getting pushed around at the second level, and that’s the exact area Henry punishes when he gets rolling. Everything points toward another 18+ carry night.

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