Kate’s Prop Shop: The Best Props for Week 6 in the NFL

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Get a deep dive into this NFC West matchup with our Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers preview and picks...

Kate’s Prop Shop has been on an absolute heater lately (catch us every Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET), and the props article has been keeping pace. We’re sitting at a sharp 9-3 record after another profitable Week 5, cashing both Jordan Mason and David Montgomery’s rushing props with ease. The lone blemish came on Justin Herbert’s passing yards, but let’s be honest—nothing went right for the Chargers against the Commanders.

Now it’s time to keep the streak alive and roll that momentum straight into Week 6.

For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.

You can also browse our recommendations for the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.

Bengals QB Joe Flacco U36.5 Passing Attempts vs. Packers (BetOnline, -115)

Joe Flacco will make his first start for the Cincinnati Bengals after being traded from the Cleveland Browns on Tuesday, and the timing couldn’t be tougher. He’ll have just a handful of practices to learn the playbook before stepping behind what’s arguably the worst offensive line in football. Cincinnati has done little to protect its quarterbacks this season, which helps explain why Jake Browning looked overwhelmed in recent weeks. The numbers back it up: the Bengals’ offensive line is allowing pressure on 42% of dropbacks — the second-highest rate in the league — and that’s unlikely to improve against this Week 6 opponent. The Packers defense has been relentless, leading the NFL in pass-rush grade and ranking third in coverage against wideouts, per PFF. That combination screams “run-heavy game plan” for Flacco and the Bengals, because if this turns into a dropback fest, it could get ugly fast.

49ers RB Christian McCaffrey O49.5 Receiving Yards vs. Buccaneers  (BetOnline, -110)

The run game in San Francisco has been surprisingly ineffective, which is not something you’d expect from a team with Christian McCaffrey in the backfield. But with injuries piling up across the offense, his role has shifted dramatically through the first five weeks. The 49ers haven’t scored a single rushing touchdown yet (which feels almost impossible to say out loud), and McCaffrey hasn’t cracked 70 rushing yards in any game this season. Instead, he’s been doing his damage through the air. McCaffrey is averaging 7.8 catches and 77.4 receiving yards per game, and over the past two weeks, he’s turned those targets into explosive gains, averaging 15.3 and 10.3 yards per reception. Against a Buccaneers defense that ranks just 20th against the pass, there’s every reason to believe McCaffrey clears 49.5 receiving yards with room to spare.

Steelers RB Jaylen Warren O45.5 Rushing Yards vs. Browns (BetOnline, -114)

I’m sticking with what’s been working — fading whichever running back has the misfortune of facing the Browns defense. This week, that’s Steelers RB1 Jaylen Warren. He’s averaging 44 rushing yards per game, which sits right around his current prop, but he hasn’t faced a front anywhere near as dominant as Cleveland’s. Warren missed last week’s game against Minnesota with an injury, so while you could argue he’s coming in rested, there’s also a fair chance he’s not 100%. Either way, this matchup is brutal. The Browns have held Chase Brown, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, and Jordan Mason all under their rushing props this season — a murderers’ row of talented backs who couldn’t get anything going. The market’s starting to wise up to this trend, so this might be one of the last chances to grab value on a “fade the RB vs. Cleveland” play. But until it stops cashing, I’m not stepping off the train.

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