Kate’s Prop Shop: The Best Props for Week 5 in the NFL

|

I’m not usually one to toot my own horn, but… TOOT TOOT! Kate’s Prop Shop has been rolling the past few weeks (catch us every Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET), and the props article has been just as hot.

We’re sitting at 7-2 after a strong Week 4, cashing on Quinshon Judkins and Omarion Hampton to go over their rushing yards, plus Jordan Love O1.5 passing touchdowns (the Packers ML portion of that SGP pushed—ties are the worst).

Now let’s ride that momentum straight into Week 5.

For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.

You can also browse our recommendations for the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.

Vikings RB Jordan Mason U66.5 Rushing Yards vs. Browns (BetOnline, -111)

We’re going right back to fading whoever lines up against the Browns’ front, and this week it’s Jordan Mason. Cleveland owns the top run defense in football, giving up just 70.3 rushing yards per game while allowing only two rushing scores all season. The lone back to clear his rushing prop against them was Jahmyr Gibbs, who broke loose for 91 yards last week. Even then, the Browns’ “pick your poison” approach worked—David Montgomery was bottled up for just 12 yards. On average, they’ve held Chase Brown, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, and Montgomery under their rushing props by a massive 38.2 yards. That’s dominance. With Aaron Jones out and the Vikings’ backfield depth already stretched thin, Cleveland can zero in on Mason, making the under 66.5 look like the right side.

Lions RB David Montgomery O50.5 Rushing Yards vs. Bengals  (BetOnline, -120)

Speaking of David Montgomery, we’re backing him to rebound after a quiet Week 4. His 12 yards against Cleveland marked his second-lowest total as a Lion, but that came against the NFL’s best run defense. This week he draws a Bengals unit that ranks 26th against the run, giving up 138.5 yards per game. While this is the highest his rushing prop has been all season, there’s good reason—it’s an exploitable matchup. Cincinnati just let two Broncos backs, J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey, both clear 50.5 rushing yards in Week 4, and they surrendered 116 yards to Jordan Mason the week before. Even with Jahmyr Gibbs sharing touches, Montgomery should see plenty of volume, giving him more than enough opportunity to cash this over.

Chargers QB Justin Herbert O264.5 Passing Yards vs. Commanders (BetOnline, -114)

I’m backing Justin Herbert to bounce back after his roughest outing of the year in Week 4. On the road against the Giants, he managed just 203 yards with two interceptions against a single touchdown, but now he’s back at SoFi in a far better matchup. Washington’s secondary has been a liability since Week 2, surrendering 280+ passing yards in three straight games and sitting 28th in defensive dropback EPA. Herbert has already shown his ceiling this year, throwing for 318 yards in Week 1 and 300 in Week 3, and he continues to attack vertically, ranking top 10 in average intended air yards. He’s still completing better than 68% of his passes on the season despite last week’s dip, and with this defense on deck, I trust him to get back on track at home.

Looking for More?

Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly

Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER

Follow me on ‘X’ @KateConstable for all my picks and sports takes you didn’t ask for! Follow Betting News on ‘X’ and Twitch and catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks, and news!

Looking for a great promo for a new sportsbook? Check out our reviews of the best sportsbooks.