Kate’s Prop Shop: The Best Props for Week 3 in the NFL

I don’t know if you’ve heard, but two weeks ago, we launched a new show on the network, and I think you’re really going to want to tune in. I might be a little biased, but every Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET, you can catch me hosting Kate’s Prop Shop, where I break down my favorite NFL prop bets as soon as the lines come out for the upcoming week. The goal is simple: give you actionable, fun, and sometimes sneaky ways to attack the player prop market so you can head into the weekend with a clear plan.

This article serves as a natural extension of the show and so far we’re 2-1 on our props! Sometimes I’ll highlight the same plays I break down on air, giving you a deeper look into why I like them. Other times, I’ll drop entirely new props that didn’t make it into the episode, so you’ll always have something fresh to consider. Whether you’re a seasoned prop bettor or just getting your feet wet, I’ll make sure you’re covered with the best insights heading into every NFL weekend. Think of it as your go-to resource for the props you need to know, the ones I’m personally backing, and the angles that could give you an edge.

For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.

You can also browse our recommendations for the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.

Packers RB Josh Jacobs Under 78.5 Rushing Yards (-114, BetOnline)

Josh Jacobs’ rushing prop is set at 78.5 yards, but this is a brutal matchup against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday.  The Browns have the best front seven in football right now, and running on them has been nearly impossible. Derrick Henry — one of the toughest backs to bring down in the league — was bottled up for just 23 yards on 11 carries. For reference, his rushing prop last week was set at 73.5 yards, staying wayyyyy under. Cincinnati Bengals running back Chase Brown didn’t fare any better in Week 1, needing 21 attempts just to scrape together 43 yards. Through two weeks, Cleveland has surrendered only 91 rushing yards total, a ridiculous number that highlights how dominant their defensive line and linebackers have been at plugging gaps and winning at the line of scrimmage. Jacobs is talented, but volume alone won’t crack this wall. If the game script tilts negative and the Packers are forced to throw, his rushing chances shrink even further. Everything about this matchup points to Jacobs struggling to find yards after contact and staying under his number.

Colts TE Tyler Warren Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-113, BetOnline)

Rookie tight end Tyler Warren has wasted no time proving he belongs in the NFL, and Shane Steichen has made him a central piece of the Colts’ passing attack. Through just two weeks, Warren has drawn 16 targets, turning them into 11 receptions and back-to-back strong performances: 76 yards in Week 1 against Miami and 79 yards in Week 2 against Denver’s defense, which has historically been one of the better units against tight ends. He’s not just racking up short completions either—Warren already has catches of 21 and 41 yards, showing he’s capable of chunk plays that can tilt a prop like this over the number in a single snap. Now he gets a soft matchup against a Titans defense that continues to be one of the most exploitable units through the air. Tennessee just gave up a perfect 6-for-6 day to the Rams’ tight ends, allowing them to average nine yards per grab. With Daniel Jones relying heavily on Warren as a security blanket in the middle of the field, and Steichen scheming him into space, the volume and opportunity are both there. At 49.5 yards, the bar is low enough for Warren to hit this over even without another monster outing, but given his role and explosiveness, another 70-plus yard day is certainly in play.

Jets RB Breece Hall Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-114, BetOnline)

Breece Hall has been one of the most efficient pass-catching backs in the league, ranking 5th in receiving yards per route run. The Jets are finding ways to get him the ball in space, and this matchup plays right into that strength. Tampa Bay has struggled badly to defend pass-catching running backs, ranking 31st in receiving yards allowed per pass play to the position. Their linebackers can be exposed in coverage, and Hall has the burst to turn a simple checkdown into a 15-yard chunk. On top of the matchup, the game script sets up well for him: if the Bucs’ offense builds an early lead, the Jets will be forced to lean on the short passing game to keep up, which means more dump-offs and designed routes for Hall. At just 20.5 yards, he doesn’t need a huge workload—two or three catches could easily cash this over, and his explosiveness gives him the upside to blow past it with a single big play.

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