I don’t know if you’ve heard, but there’s a brand-new show on the network that’s quickly becoming my favorite to do, and I think you’re really going to want to tune in. I might be a little biased, but every Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET, you can catch me hosting Kate’s Prop Show, where I break down my favorite NFL prop bets as soon as the lines come out for the upcoming week. The goal is simple: give you actionable, fun, and sometimes sneaky ways to attack the player prop market so you can head into the weekend with a clear plan.
This article serves as a natural extension of the show. Sometimes I’ll highlight the same plays I break down on air, giving you a deeper look into why I like them. Other times, I’ll drop entirely new props that didn’t make it into the episode, so you’ll always have something fresh to consider. Whether you’re a seasoned prop bettor or just getting your feet wet, I’ll make sure you’re covered with the best insights heading into every NFL weekend. Think of it as your go-to resource for the props you need to know, the ones I’m personally backing, and the angles that could give you an edge.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
You can also browse our recommendations for the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.
Daniel Jones U203.5 Passing Yards (-130, BetOnline)
Daniel Jones’ stat line from Week 1 looks fine at first glance — 272 yards and a touchdown against Miami — but let’s call it what it was: the Dolphins flat-out didn’t show up, and that inflated his passing numbers. The real story was Jones’ legs, as he scrambled for two touchdowns and constantly bailed himself out when things broke down. That kind of escape act is going to be much harder in Week 2 against Denver. The Broncos’ defense looked among the best in the league in their opener, racking up six sacks and holding Tennessee to a measly 2.4 yards per play. Rookie QB Cam Ward got completely overwhelmed, finishing just 12-of-28 for 112 yards with zero scores. Sure, he was making his first career start, but Sean Payton and company will bring that same kind of heat at Jones. Denver blitzed at the third-highest rate in the league in Week 1, and Jones has never handled pressure well — his track record is ugly when the pocket collapses. With his passing prop sitting at 203.5 yards, this matchup feels like a nightmare for him. Everything lines up for the under.
Rams QB Matthew Stafford Over 236.5 Passing Yards (-115, BetOnline)
Matthew Stafford opened the season by throwing for 245 yards on 21-of-29 passing, and he did it against a Texans defense that’s no joke with one of the better pass rushes in the league. This week, the Titans’ defense doesn’t bring nearly the same concern. After Week 1, Tennessee ranks 29th in pressure rate and 27th in overall defensive line play, which means Stafford should have plenty of time to sit back in a clean pocket and pick apart coverages. And when Stafford has time, he can sling it for days. Last year, he went over this number in eight of the 16 games he played, and the Rams’ offense hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down. Add in the fact that L.A.’s defense looks strong enough to force multiple three-and-outs against a shaky Titans offense, and Stafford should get plenty of extra possessions. With the matchup and game flow both working in his favor, clearing 236.5 passing yards feels very much in play.
Giants WR Malik Nabers Over 6.5 Receptions (-115, BetOnline)
Let’s be real — Russell Wilson isn’t the same guy we saw years ago in Seattle, and Week 1 only reinforced that. But betting isn’t about nostalgia, it’s about finding value, and this is the perfect buy-low spot on New York’s passing game. Malik Nabers is the clear No. 1 option in this offense, finishing Week 1 with the seventh-highest target rate of any wide receiver in the NFL. Wilson locked onto him early and often, and with how shaky the rest of the Giants’ pass catchers are, that volume isn’t going anywhere. Dallas’ defense is banged up and, without Micah Parsons, their pass rush just doesn’t hit the same way. That means Wilson should get more time in the pocket, which directly translates to more opportunities for Nabers to pile up easy receptions on short and intermediate routes. If the Giants fall behind and have to lean on the passing game even more, Nabers has a strong chance to go well over 6.5 catches.
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