Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders
Both of these AFC West teams enter Week 7 coming off much-needed wins. The Raiders snapped a four-game losing streak with a 27-20 victory over the Tennessee Titans, covering as 3.5-point favorites. The Chiefs also won and covered, defeating the Detroit Lions 30-17 as 2.5-point favorites.
Kansas City’s win came as a bounce-back performance after its narrow 31-28 loss in Jacksonville, while Las Vegas finally found some rhythm after a tough stretch.
Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium. The betting market originally opened with the Chiefs as 9.5-point favorites and the total at 45.5. Since then, the total has held steady, but Kansas City has been bet up to as high as -12.5.
Let’s take a look at how I’m approaching this AFC West showdown with my Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders predictions and picks.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders NFL Betting Insights
Can Ashton Jeanty get things going against the Chiefs on Sunday?
Chiefs vs Raiders Predictions
It seems like everyone is ready to jump back on the Kansas City bandwagon after the Chiefs took down one of the league’s hottest teams on Monday night. And sure, their 30-17 win was impressive – but it doesn’t drastically change the overall outlook of this team. This was a critical spot for Kansas City, a “prove-it” game both to themselves and to the rest of the league. Still, this team remains riddled with flaws.
Defensively, Kansas City ranks 25th in success rate and 23rd in EPA per play allowed. The run defense has been particularly poor, sitting 29th in rush EPA and 27th in rush success rate while giving up 4.7 yards per carry.
It’s been a tough start for rookie running back Ashton Jeanty, but if he can find a rhythm early, the Raiders have a chance to keep this one within the large double-digit spread. Exploiting KC’s horrid run defense, while simultaneously keeping the ball out of the hands of Patrick Mahomes is the path toward a Las Vegas cover.
The biggest separation between these teams comes on offense. The Chiefs rank fourth in both EPA per play and success rate – a massive gap compared to the Raiders, who sit 29th and 27th in those same categories. Plus, Mahomes benefits from not only having a healthy Xavier Worthy in the lineup consistently, but by gaining fellow receiver Rashee Rice, who is eligible to return after serving his six-game suspension. This will no doubt provide a boost to an already prolific passing offense.
Chiefs WR Rashee Rice’s six-game suspension is now over and he is eligible to play Sunday vs. the Raiders. pic.twitter.com/XttVrHx4XZ
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 13, 2025
Although, Las Vegas’ defense has shown some promise. Outside of its games against the Commanders and Colts, when those teams scored 41 and 40 points, respectively, the Raiders have held every other opponent to 25 points or fewer.
Las Vegas ranks 14th in defensive EPA per play and 15th in success rate, with particularly strong play up front. The Raiders sit sixth in rush EPA per play allowed and are holding opposing running backs to just four yards per carry.
Kansas City’s run game has been mediocre at best, and that’s unlikely to change against Maxx Crosby and this Raiders’ formidable front seven.
Kansas City vs Las Vegas Picks
Last season, the Chiefs were one of the most frustrating teams to bet on, as they struggled to win by large margins and cover spreads consistently. They finished 9-11 ATS with an average scoring margin of just +2.7. It’s remarkable that a team with those numbers still reached the Super Bowl, but that’s just a testament to the magic of Patrick Mahomes.
Now, Kansas City enters a divisional matchup on a short week against a respectable defense. The familiarity and rivalry are there, and it feels like the market is overreacting a bit to the Chiefs’ win this past Monday.
I get it – people saw the Chiefs win by double digits against one of the NFL’s premier teams, so why wouldn’t they be able to cover a similar number against one of the worst? Geno Smith has been among the league’s least effective quarterbacks this season, but Las Vegas’ win last week was still a much-needed morale boost. Sure, it came against the struggling Titans – who ended up firing their head coach, Brian Callahan on Monday – but in this league, a win is a win, and those are never easy to come by.
Perhaps that’s the kind of momentum the Raiders needed to keep playing competitive football down the stretch, especially in a matchup against a rival they’d love nothing more than to embarrass.
The Chiefs haven’t beaten the Raiders by more than 12.5 points since November 2023, when they won 31-17. The teams have met three times since then: a 20-14 Raiders victory, a 27-20 Chiefs win, and most recently, another close Kansas City win, 19-17.
Most of the market is moving this number down toward 11.5, but there are some shops that are dealing +13, with -118 juice. If you’re able to get 13 points with the Raiders, I suggest pulling the trigger.
As for props, we’ll need to wait until Wednesday evening for most of them to be posted. A few early targets that stand out include Patrick Mahomes over 1.5 passing touchdowns, Ashton Jeanty over his rushing yards, and Geno Smith under his passing yards and/or to throw an interception.
Whether or not I lock in any of those will depend on where the prices and numbers land, but be sure to check back later in the week, or catch our show Any Given Wager on Thursday or Friday at 1 p.m. ET, for any additional best bets.
Best Bet: Raiders +13 (-118)
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