Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts
In what could be one of the more entertaining games of the season, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs host Daniel Jones and the Colts this Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium at 1:00 pm ET.
Kansas City is listed as a 3.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks and the consensus total sits around 50.5. This matchup is sure to draw plenty of intrigue, so let’s get you prepped for it with my Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts preview and best bet.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts Preview & Best Bet
Can Jonathan Taylor do enough on Sunday to overcome Patrick Mahomes & the Chiefs?
Chiefs vs Colts Preview
Many people seem to be freaking out about the Kansas City Chiefs following their 22-19 loss on the road against their division rival and current leader, the Denver Broncos. It marks their second straight loss after falling 28-21 in Buffalo two weeks ago.
It’s funny how quickly sentiment shifts. Before these back-to-back losses to playoff-caliber teams, everyone was ready to declare the Chiefs clear Super Bowl contenders again during their three-game win streak, where they posted an average winning margin of 21.7 points. Yes, two of those wins came against the league’s worst teams in the Raiders and Commanders, but they also beat the Lions during that stretch.
Losing in Buffalo is nothing to be ashamed of, and even coming off a bye week, it’s not shocking the Chiefs slipped in Denver. Division games are always tough, and even more challenging on the road in one of the loudest environments in football while facing a premier defense.
So let’s pump the brakes on the panic surrounding Mahomes and company. They’ll be fine.
Offensively, the Chiefs rank third in EPA per play and fourth in success rate. Their upcoming opponent, Indianapolis, sits ahead of them, ranking first in EPA per play and second in success rate.
Kansas City’s defense is serviceable, sitting 14th in EPA per play and 19th in success rate allowed. The Colts are 22nd in success rate allowed but 10th in EPA per play allowed.
When evaluating the Colts, you have to acknowledge the schedule they’ve played. There’s been a narrative that they’re fraudulent because of an easier slate, and that criticism carries some truth. They’ve faced the fourth-easiest schedule in the league.
That doesn’t mean they don’t deserve respect. Winning at the rate they have is never simple in the NFL, especially given how efficient they’ve been offensively. But outside of the Los Angeles Rams, who beat them 27-20 in Week 4, the Chiefs will be their toughest opponent. And having to square off at Arrowhead against them in their most desperate position yet only raises the difficulty.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts Best Bet
As noted, most sportsbooks are posting the Chiefs as a 3.5-point favorite. However, several books have Kansas City at a flat -3 with -120 juice attached.
I’m willing to lay the extra cents to get the field goal protection.
The Chiefs will get back on track this Sunday and put the Colts in their place. Everything Indy has done this season is impressive, but there are limits. Jonathan Taylor is rightfully an MVP candidate, but he can only take them so far. At some point Daniel Jones is going to have to step up and make big throws against the best quarterback in the league. Do you really believe he’s capable of doing that for all four quarters at Arrowhead?
I’m not buying it. The Chiefs red zone defense ranks 10th this season, allowing opponents to score a touchdown on 55.6% of trips inside the 20, a number that’s dropped to 50% over their last three games.
Indy, on the other hand, sits 24th in red zone defensive efficiency at 63%, and that number has climbed to 66.7% over their last three games.
This facet of the game will prove to be the difference. Which defense can come up with the key red zone stops? The numbers point toward Kansas City. If Daniel Jones and this Colts offense stall near the red zone it may force him into some errant throws that lead to costly turnovers and flip this game on its head.
Don’t overthink it – it’s Patrick Mahomes vs. Daniel Jones. Recency bias is a hell of a thing when betting the NFL, so don’t let it sway you in this matchup.
NFL Record: 63-47 (+8.15 units)
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