Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens: Would many people have guessed that when the Chiefs and Ravens met in Week 4, both teams would be 1-2?
Perhaps, both have faced tough early schedules. Baltimore traveled to Buffalo and blew a 15-point 4th-quarter lead, bounced back with a dominant win over the Browns, then came up short against the Lions.
Kansas City opened with a 27-21 loss to the Chargers in an international game, then fell 20-17 in a Super Bowl rematch with the Eagles. They finally got on the board last week, beating the Giants 22-9.
The spread has seen major movement. Back in May, Kansas City opened as a -1.5 favorite. Now the line has swung to Baltimore, making the Ravens -2.5 with juice to their side, suggesting it could climb to -3.
That kind of swing is remarkable, especially between two powerhouse franchises. Meanwhile, the total has held steady near its opener of 48.5.
Mahomes has had the upper hand in this matchup. In six career meetings with Jackson, he’s 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread. He’s also thrived as an underdog, posting an 11-5 straight-up record and a 12-3-1 mark ATS as a starter.
Some noteworthy trends to keep in mind, folks. Now let’s dive into my Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens picks and predictions.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens NFL Betting Insights
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs look to defend home turf as an underdog in NFL Week 4.
Red Flags: Both teams come into this matchup with noticeable flaws.
For Baltimore, the defense has been a major concern. Yes, Buffalo and Detroit are elite offenses, but giving up 79 combined points to them raises red flags. The Ravens rank 29th in defensive success rate and 27th in EPA per play allowed. Against the run, they’ve been even worse – dead last in rush success rate and 31st in rush EPA per play. Kansas City’s ground game has been mediocre, but this could be a get-right spot against such a vulnerable front.
On the other side, Kansas City’s offense clearly isn’t the juggernaut it once was. Mahomes remains elite, though he’s had some uneven stretches. The bigger issue is his supporting cast, with aging weapons showing decline. The good news: rookie Xavier Worthy is expected back, and Tyquan Thornton is emerging as a legitimate threat. Oddly enough, Andy Reid’s unit still ranks top-10 in both EPA per play and success rate, yet they’ve managed just 20 points per game.
It feels like if one of these teams is positioned to correct its shortcomings, it’s Kansas City. With the league’s best quarterback, one of the sharpest coaches, and a matchup against what looks like one of the NFL’s weakest defenses, the Chiefs have a clear path to improvement.
Lamar vs Chiefs Defense: This will be a fascinating battle to watch unfold. Lamar Jackson has been very efficient, but has been on the wrong end of a couple crucial Derrick Henry fumbles. If not for that, we’d be having a different conversation.
The Ravens’ offense ranks 4th in EPA per play and 8th in success rate. Individually, Jackson sits 2nd among quarterbacks in EPA per play, 4th in CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected), and 5th in success rate. By comparison, Mahomes ranks 10th, 26th, and 16th in those same categories.
On the other side, Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is allowing just 18.7 points per game, but the underlying numbers paint a less flattering picture. Kansas City ranks 23rd in defensive success rate and 21st in EPA per play allowed. Their secondary has been steady, yet like Baltimore, the run defense has been a glaring weakness – 29th in both EPA and success rate.
Chiefs vs Ravens Picks: You guessed it – we’re heading to the prop market. Let’s take a deeper dive into Lamar Jackson’s rushing yards prop.
Earlier in the week, the line sat at 42.5, with -117 juice to the over. Currently, 44.5 is where it’s listed, which I still think is a viable opportunity to attack the over.
Jackson has faced Kansas City six times in his career and racked up 479 rushing yards – an average of 79.8 per game on 10 carries at 6.7 yards per attempt. He’s cleared 42.5 in every single matchup.
Of course, past success doesn’t guarantee future results. Still, consider how poor this Chiefs run defense has been, and how a high-scoring, back-and-forth game script could push Jackson to rely more on his legs. With Kansas City’s secondary holding up well, he may have fewer clean passing looks, forcing him to create on the ground. Add in the Chiefs’ aggressive approach – blitzing at the fifth-highest rate (34.6%) – and the scramble opportunities should be there once the pocket collapses.
As of now, Jackson’s rushing yards over is my best bet for this game.
As for the side, it’s tricky. I understand the appeal of grabbing the Chiefs as a home underdog against a shaky defense. But the metrics point to Baltimore being the rightful favorite. Then again, the analytics are often high on the Ravens, and we’ve seen them fall short in big spots before. Blind faith in the numbers can be dangerous.
Play: Lamar Jackson Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-117)
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