The Jaguars travel to the west coast this week, ready to face off with the San Francisco 49ers at Levi Stadium. Jacksonville was one possession from a perfect start, can they steal a game in the Bay? Let’s get into it.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Levi Stadium; Santa Clara, California
- Date: Sunday, September 28th, 2025
- Kickoff: 4:05 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence (2-8; 2024 – 204.5 YPG | 11 TD | 7 INT)
- San Francisco 49ers: Brock Purdy (6-9; 2024 – 257.6 YPG | 20 TD | 12 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Next Man Up
The 49ers are 3-0 to start the year and they’ve already had two different quarterbacks under center this year. Brock Purdy started the team’s first game of the year, recorded 277 yards through the air with two touchdowns, two interceptions and the win. Unfortunately, Purdy suffered a toe injury near the end of the game that kept him out of the 49ers next two matchups.
Mac Jones stepped in and without missing a beat, helped the 49ers to two more wins. In two games, Jones completed 66% of his passes for 563 yards, four touchdowns and just one interception. Now entering Week 4, both quarterbacks are banged up but it looks like Purdy may be making his return to the field.
The list of injuries for San Francisco is long, outside of both quarterbacks still being questionable; both starting wide receivers remain on the injury report. Ricky Pearsall popped up on the injury report with a knee injury and didn’t practice on Wednesday. Jauan Jennings missed last week’s game with an ankle injury and his status of this week remains up in the air. All-Pro tight end George Kittle is on the IR and Nick Bosa suffered a torn ACL in last week’s matchup with Arizona, he’s out for the year.
It’s next man up for the Niners this week, can’t make excuses when you’re undefeated.
The Blame Game
The Jaguars are 2-1 to start the season, 2nd in their division and the only thing people are talking about is the lack of production from Brian Thomas Jr. Plenty of blame has been thrown around, ranging from Trevor Lawrence, to BTJ himself and even to the team’s new offensive coordinator; Shane Waldron. The truth is, everyone’s to blame.
Brian Thomas Jr. has four drops this season, but he’s also only seen 11 ‘catchable’ targets. That means of his 25 targets this year, only 44% of been deemed catchable balls. Trevor Lawrence currently ranks dead last in ‘catchable throw’ rate with just 76%. At the same time, BTJ ranks last among wideouts with 25+ targets in catch rate (28%) and some of that’s to blame on this new offensive scheme. We’ve now seen wideouts like Rome Odunze, Jaxson Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp struggle in Shane Waldron lead offenses.
Jacksonville is still 2-1 and in the hunt for the AFC South, if they hope to keep competing they’ll need to fix their offensive problems.
Sunday’s Best Bets
Trevor Lawrence o1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+115)
Trevor Lawrence looks to silence the haters this season
Trevor Lawrence has been bad this year. He’s completing just 59% of his passes, thrown four touchdowns but also four interceptions and ranks dead last in catchable throw rate. The Jaguars offensive line has been good too, allowing just three sacks on the year and keeping Lawrence relatively clean. Lawrence and the Jaguars come into this one off a gritty win over the Houston Texans. Lawrence finished with 222 passing yards, no touchdowns and one interception.
The Jags gave up just two sacks to one of the NFL’s best pass rushes and held the Texans to just 10 points. This week against the Niners, they’ll need a little more offensive fire power. With the loss of Nick Bosa, I’m expecting this San Francisco defense to struggle generating pressure.
Although he hasn’t shown it this year, Trevor Lawrence is a completely different quarterback when he’s got time in the pocket. In 2024, when kept clean, Lawrence completed 66% of his passes and recorded a 91.2 quarterback rating (QBR). When under pressure, his completion rate dropped to 42% and a 64.5 QBR. If you go back to 2023, it’s more of the same; under pressure he completed just 45% of his passes, finished with a 1-1 TD/INT ratio and a 62.4 QBR. When kept clean, 72% completion rate, 96.1 QBR, and near 2-1 TD/INT.
Spencer Rattler put up three touchdowns against this same defense in Week 3 and I see no reason we can’t see something similar from Lawrence. This week against a beat up Niners defense with the chance to go 3-1, I’m expecting Liam Coen to come out firing.
Ricky Pearsall o66.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Ricky Pearsall’s the WR1 for the 49ers and he’s more than lived up to the hype. Through three games this year, he leads the 49ers receivers with a 21.9% target share and he’s converted that into 16 catches for 281 yards and no touchdowns. He’s averaging 93.7 yards per game and with Brock Purdy looking like he’ll be back in Week 4, I love this spot for Ricky.
The Jaguars rank 23rd in yards allowed to wide receivers this year and 84% of that production has come against receivers lined up out wide. Pearsall’s taken 75% of his snaps out wide and he’s absolutely killed zone defenses this year. Ricky’s got 281 total yards through the air this year, with 187 of those yards coming against zone schemes. He’s got a 67% catch rate and ranks 15th among wideouts in grade against zone coverages.
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