Jacksonville Jaguars vs Seattle Seahawks Predictions & Picks (10/12): Turn Away From Trevor

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Sam Darnold leads the Seahawks as their starting QB this season - 49ers Seahawks Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Seattle Seahawks: Talk about a turnaround for this Jaguars team. After their embarrassing Week 2 loss in Cincinnati – a game they were in prime position to win after Joe Burrow exited with an injury – they’ve flipped the script. Since then, Jacksonville has rattled off three straight victories, including a road upset over the 49ers in San Francisco, 26-21, and then a Monday night win at home against the Chiefs, 31-28. The Jaguars were 3.5-point underdogs in both of those contests but still managed to come away with outright wins. They now sit at the top of the AFC South alongside the Houston Texans who also have a record of 4-1.

On the other side, Seattle just saw their three-game winning streak snapped this past Sunday in a 38-35 home loss to the Buccaneers. Sam Darnold was in the middle of a career day and nearly capped it off in style, but a late turnover set up Tampa Bay’s game-winning field goal. Despite that costly mistake, Darnold still shined, completing 28 of 34 passes for 341 yards and four touchdowns. His top target, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, hauled in eight receptions for 132 yards and a score.

The Jaguars opened as a -1.5-point favorite, but now we see this as a pick’em at most shops. The total has also moved toward the over, climbing from 46.5 to 47.5. Let’s explore the best ways to wager on this game with my Jacksonville Jaguars vs Seattle Seahwks predictions and picks. 

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Seattle Seahawks NFL Betting Insights

 

Trevor Lawrence looks to bring his team to 2-0 this season.

Can Trevor Lawrence guide the Jags to another thrilling win on Sunday?

Trusting Trevor: We’re going to learn a lot about Trevor Lawrence in this matchup. Yes, he played well enough on Monday night to get past Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, but it was far from a flawless showing. Until he dropped an absolute dime on a 33-yard completion to Brian Thomas Jr. with one minute left in the fourth quarter, the conversation around Lawrence was far more negative. Just one play earlier, he had taken one of the ugliest sacks you’ll see all season, and throughout the game he held onto the ball too long instead of finding open receivers.

Lawrence pulled off one of the most miraculous plays we’ll see all season on his game-winning red zone score – stumbling twice, somehow regaining his balance and still finding the end zone. But moments like that only mask the larger concerns. Even during that play, fans were holding their breath, and outside of that highlight, his decision-making and pocket awareness remain worrisome.

That’s why I’m not sold on Lawrence’s upward trajectory, especially with Seattle coming to town. The Seahawks’ defense has been elite against the run, allowing the second-fewest yards per carry (3.3) and ranking third in rush EPA per play. That sets up a tough challenge for Travis Etienne, who’s averaging 5.8 yards per carry with 443 yards and two scores this season. If Seattle’s front seven limits him – and they’re well-equipped to do so – the pressure will fall on Lawrence to carry the offense. And regardless of Monday night’s late-game heroics, it’s hard to envision him consistently rising to that spotlight against this defense.

Lawrence ranks 30th in CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected), 19th in EPA per play, and 18th in success rate among 32 qualified quarterbacks this season. His counterpart, Sam Darnold, sits first in all three categories. And while Darnold can certainly be dicey at times, the numbers make it clear – he’s been the more effective quarterback this season.

Jaguars vs Seahawks Predictions & Picks: As good as Darnold has been on paper, this matchup will test him as well. Jacksonville’s 4-1 record isn’t just a product of Etienne’s ground success – their defense has been a major factor, too. The Jaguars rank sixth in EPA per play allowed and lead the league in turnover differential at +8. Their knack for taking the ball away has fueled much of their success, highlighted on Monday night when Devin Lloyd intercepted Mahomes at the goal line and returned it 99 yards for a score.

Forcing turnovers is always a valuable ingredient in a winning formula, but it’s not the most sustainable path, especially when paired with inconsistent quarterback play from Lawrence. If the takeaways dry up, Jacksonville could quickly find themselves exposed.

And while Darnold may still be prone to the occasional costly interception, as we saw last Sunday, he should be able to lean on his backfield more in this matchup. The tandem of Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet has a favorable draw against a Jaguars run defense that ranks 24th in rush EPA per play allowed and is giving up 4.6 yards per carry.

Unlike Jacksonville, I expect Seattle to execute a balanced offensive game plan that effectively incorporates both the run and the pass. That versatility gives the Seahawks the upper hand and a clearer path to victory. On top of that, the Jaguars are coming in with one less day of prep after riding the high of an emotional Monday night win, which could make this spot even trickier for them.

Play: Seattle Seahawks Moneyline (-110) BetOnline

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