Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers
The 7-3 Los Angeles Chargers head to Jacksonville to take on the 5-4 Jaguars. Jim Harbaugh’s crew is seeking its fourth straight win, while Liam Cohen’s group looks to rebound after one of the worst blown leads of the season.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET, with CBS carrying the coverage.
Let’s dig into this NFL Week 11 matchup with my Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Chargers preview, predictions and props.
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers Preview, Predictions & Props
Does Justin Herbert have what it takes to beat the Jags on Sunday?
Jaguars vs Chargers Preview
What type of response can we expect from Trevor Lawrence and company after their devastating Week 10 loss in Houston? Jacksonville has been an up-and-down team all season, but last week’s 36-29 collapse against backup quarterback Davis Mills might’ve been the clearest indictment of what this team really is.
Losing to a division opponent is one thing, and losing to a backup quarterback is another. But doing both while blowing a 29-10 fourth-quarter lead is an entirely different beast.
That’s right – Mills led the Texans on a 26-0 run that flipped the game on its head, leaving the Jaguars in shambles. He finished 27-of-45 for 292 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.
And circumstances will only get tougher for Jacksonville with Justin Herbert and the red-hot Chargers coming to town.
Oddsmakers opened Los Angeles as a 2.5-point favorite with the total at 43.5. Since then, the Chargers have inched up to -3, while the total has remained steady, though some books have nudged it to 44.
When assessing this matchup, it’s imperative to look closely at both quarterbacks. Trevor Lawrence has rightfully drawn criticism for failing to reach the superstar ceiling many expected when he was selected No. 1 overall in 2021. So far, he hasn’t lived up to that billing.
Lawrence sits 26th in adjusted EPA per play, 28th in success rate, and 32nd in CPOE. He’s completing under 60% of his attempts and owns a 10–7 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Justin Herbert, meanwhile, ranks 15th in adjusted EPA/play, 11th in success rate, and 17th in CPOE. He’s completing 67% of his passes with 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
The Chargers hold the edge not only at quarterback, but on the defensive side as well. They boast the fourth-ranked defense in success rate and are sixth in EPA per play allowed.
Jacksonville, on the other hand, ranks 22nd in success rate and 20th in EPA/play allowed. The Jaguars defend the run well, but their secondary remains a liability: 28th in dropback success rate, 19th in dropback EPA, and allowing 10.6 yards per completion (27th).
Even more concerning is their red-zone performance. Jacksonville owns the 25th-ranked red-zone defense, giving up touchdowns on 66.7% of opponent trips inside the 20 – a number that has risen to 84.6% over their last three games.
Conversely, the Chargers’ secondary is allowing just 9.6 yards per catch (5th), dipping to 8.6 over their past three games. Their red-zone defense has also been outstanding: third in the league at 46.7%, and an absurd 25% over their previous three contests.
Los Angeles is mediocre against the run, but ranks top-four in both dropback EPA and success rate.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers Predictions & Props
Normally, I’d hesitate to trust the Chargers in a cross-country road spot, especially given their history of struggling to cover numbers in these situations. They lost at the Giants (21–18) and barely escaped Miami earlier this year (29–27). However, the state of the Jaguars’ franchise may be in shambles. It’s clear there’s a disconnect between Trevor Lawrence and first-year head coach Liam Cohen. Los Angeles has the better team, coach and quarterback, so it’s no surprise the market has shown support in their direction.
That said, I don’t see nearly as much value now that the spread has moved to the key number of -3. I’d prefer to wait and see if we get a better spread pregame, or look for an in-game opportunity to grab LA at a discount.
In the prop department, it’s hard to ignore the setup Herbert has in front of him. As mentioned, the Jaguars’ secondary has been a major liability, and Herbert and his weapons should be able to exploit that repeatedly on Sunday.
Jacksonville is allowing the third-most passing touchdowns per game (2.3), a number that’s jumped to 3.7 over their last three contests. They’re far stronger against the run, allowing only 0.7 rushing touchdowns per game – the third-fewest in the league.
Herbert is averaging roughly two passing touchdowns per game and has thrown for two or more in six of 10 outings this season. There’s heavy juice on him to hit this mark again, but it stands out as one of the stronger edges in this matchup.
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