Indianapolis Colts vs Las Vegas Raiders: Daniel Jones and the Colts finally looked human in Week 4, while Geno Smith and the Raiders looked like they forgot how to play organized football.
Despite suffering a loss, Indianapolis was in a strong position to win last week. Receiver Adonai Mitchell appeared to have a touchdown, but he dropped the football while celebrating before crossing the goal line. The play was ruled a touchback, giving possession to the Rams, and the Colts went on to lose 27-20. If Mitchell had just done what he was supposed to, we might be talking about a 4-0 Colts team led by Daniel Jones. Who would’ve thought? Then again, who really saw a 3-1 start from Jones and company coming either?
On the other side, Geno Smith tossed three interceptions in a 25-24 loss to the Bears. The lone bright spot was rookie running back Ashton Jeanty, who carried the ball 21 times for 138 yards and three touchdowns – two of which came through the air. He was the reason Las Vegas even had a chance to win despite Smith’s turnovers.
Can Jones and the Colts get back on track against the Raiders? Let’s dive into my Indianapolis Colts vs. Las Vegas Raiders picks and predictions.
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Indianapolis Colts vs Las Vegas Raiders NFL Betting Insights
Can Geno Smith avoid costly turnovers in Week 5?
Opening Odds: Sportsbooks opened the Colts as 2.5-points favorites. To no one’s surprise the line has moved severely after the first month of the season. Indy is now laying -6.5 to -7 across the market.
Sportsbooks opened the Colts as 2.5-point favorites, but the line has shifted heavily after the first month of the season. Indianapolis is now laying between -6.5 and -7 across the market.
The total also made a significant jump, rising from 44.5 at the open to as high as 48.5. With both defenses showing plenty of vulnerability, the move toward the over makes sense.
Let’s break down the key concerns for each team and highlight where the edges may be.
Colts vs Raiders Analysis: Indy earned my respect after last week’s game. I bet the Rams and was incredibly fortunate to cash that ticket. The Colts had plenty of chances to win and probably should have. But in the NFL, top-tier teams don’t make the kinds of mistakes Indy did – dropping the ball before crossing the plane, Daniel Jones throwing two interceptions, or letting the opposing quarterback go 29-of-41 for 375 yards, three touchdowns, and no turnovers.
The Rams finished with 462 total yards compared to Indy’s 333. It’s becoming clearer each week that while the Colts’ offense can keep them competitive, their defense continues to be a liability. Shane Steichen’s unit is allowing 5.4 yards per play and ranks 25th in success rate allowed. Even worse, they own the league’s worst red zone defense, giving up touchdowns on 87.5% of opponent trips.
So while the Colts have earned my respect, they still haven’t earned the right to be labeled as a top team.
On the flip side, what might surprise some people is that the Raiders’ defense isn’t nearly as bad as their record suggests. Their front seven ranks 2nd in rush EPA per play and 7th in success rate allowed, thanks in large part to Maxx Crosby. The veteran defensive end was a force against Chicago, piling up five tackles, two stuffs, a forced fumble, and three pass deflections – including one that turned into his own interception.
Las Vegas struggles in the secondary, so Daniel Jones’ ability to attack through the air will be worth watching. Shane Steichen’s offense ranks 1st in success rate and 3rd in EPA per play, so it’ll take a stellar effort from Crosby and company to limit them.
Meanwhile, Pete Carroll’s offense is on the opposite end of the spectrum, sitting 29th in EPA per play and 28th in success rate. Can they get another breakout performance from Jeanty? With Indy’s run defense nearly as bad as the Bears – 31st in rush success rate and allowing 4.5 yards per attempt – it’s certainly possible.
Colts vs Raiders Picks: It’s tough to find appealing action at the moment, since most of what stands out is in the prop market. Jeanty looks primed for another strong outing, and Jones has a real chance to make a dent through the air. We’ll have to wait and see where their numbers open, but those are the two players I’d keep an eye on.
As for the side, I’m still hesitant to fully buy into the Colts – their defense remains too much of a concern. I expect them to move the ball and score enough to win, but the Raiders should keep it close enough that laying a big spread doesn’t feel comfortable. A better approach might be teasing Indianapolis down from -7 to -1 in a standard six-point teaser and pairing them with another team.
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