Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons
The NFL is back on its international tracks as the Indianapolis Colts and Atlanta Falcons square off in Germany at Olympic Stadium in Berlin.
Kickoff is set for 9:30 a.m. ET, with NFL Network carrying the coverage.
Indianapolis opened as a 6.5-point favorite, with the total set at 48.5. Since then, the number on the total hasn’t budged, but Atlanta has drawn some attention – moving down to +6 at most sportsbooks.
How should we approach this overseas Week 10 matchup? Let’s break it down with my Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons preview and picks.
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Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons NFL Betting Insights
Can Jonathan Taylor bounce back after his worst performance of the season?
Colts vs Falcons Preview
As the Colts head across the pond, they’ll be bringing a new piece of luggage with them – cornerback Sauce Gardner.
Full trade:
🏈Colts receive CB Sauce Gardner.
🏈Jets receive 2026 and 2027 first-round picks and WR AD Mitchell.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 4, 2025
After a 7-2 start through their first nine games, the Colts clearly feel confident enough in their postseason chances to add one of the league’s top defenders. Gardner’s arrival should make life even tougher for a struggling Falcons offense that ranks 22nd in dropback EPA and 21st in dropback success rate. Defensively, the Colts have quietly been one of the league’s stronger units against the pass – ranking ninth in dropback EPA and eighth in yards per completion allowed (9.6).
Despite the weapons around him, Michael Penix Jr. has not lived up to expectations. Among 34 qualified quarterbacks, he ranks 32nd in CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected), 23rd in EPA per play and 22nd in success rate.
Atlanta’s season continues to trend in the wrong direction, entering this matchup on a three-game losing streak after falling 24-23 last Sunday in New England.
Indianapolis, meanwhile, had its four-game win streak snapped with a 27-20 loss in Pittsburgh. Quarterback Daniel Jones still managed 342 passing yards but threw three interceptions to just one touchdown while completing 31 of 50 attempts.
The favorite to win the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year award, Jonathan Taylor, was also held in check – limited to 45 yards on 14 carries (3.2 yards per attempt). But he’s in a prime position to bounce back against a Falcons run defense that ranks 29th in success rate and 24th in EPA per rush allowed.
Indianapolis vs Atlanta Picks
NFL favorites have thrived in international settings, boasting an overall record of 39-14-1 straight up and 34-20 against the spread. Unders have gone 28-26 in those matchups.
As of Tuesday afternoon, my betting interest leans more toward the total. A number of 48.5 feels a bit too high. I understand why many expect points here, given how efficient the Colts’ offense has been, their defensive inconsistency against quality opponents, and the playmaking talent on Atlanta, but I prefer to go against the grain.
Yes, Indianapolis has been prolific offensively, but their approach in this matchup should once again center around Jonathan Taylor. As mentioned above, Atlanta’s defensive weakness is against the run, ranking 29th in success rate and 24th in rush EPA. I expect the Colts to control possession and bleed the clock through frequent rushing attempts. That plays well into an under look, especially since the Falcons’ defense overall isn’t poor – they’re allowing just 4.9 yards per play (7th) and rank 14th in EPA per play.
On the flip side, we’ve seen the issues with Atlanta’s offense. It’s not a lack of talent among their skill players, but rather the inconsistency under center. Much like their opponent, their best path to success lies on the ground. To pull off a win, the Falcons need Bijan Robinson to get going – and that’s the optimal approach against a Colts run defense that ranks 24th in success rate allowed.
Indianapolis ranks ninth in dropback EPA and will only get stronger with Sauce Gardner added to the mix, which should help limit explosive passing plays that can kill unders.
International games are my least favorite NFL viewing experiences already, so why not make it the game where I root for an ugly, boring effort from both teams?
Best Bet: Colts vs Falcons Under 48.5 (-110) BetOnline
NFL Record: 51-44 (+0.94 units)
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