Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
An AFC South matchup takes place this Sunday that may be so ugly it turns entertaining. Okay, perhaps it won’t be that bad, but the matchup between the Texans and Jags certainly lost some appeal after it was announced the Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud would not be playing. Stroud suffered a concussion in the Texans 18-15 loss versus Denver last week, and backup Davis Mills will now take over.
Jacksonville enters at 5-3, sitting a couple of wins behind the division-leading Colts (7-2). Houston is 3-5 and nearing must-win territory. These teams already met once this season back in Week 3, when the Jaguars won 17-10 at home.
With the revenge angle in play – and without their starting quarterback – can DeMeco Ryans’ group still find a way? I’ll break it down with my Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars preview and picks.
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Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Betting Insights
Can Davis Mills keep the Texans in playoff contention?
Texans vs Jaguars Preview
After Stroud exited this past Sunday, Davis Mills stepped in and completed 17 of 30 passes for 137 yards with no scores.
Mills is a serviceable backup who can keep an offense afloat at times. But it’s one thing to come in mid-game, and another when a division opponent gets a full week to prep for you. I’m not fully convinced Houston gets the “backup QB bump” we sometimes see.
The glass-half-full angle is that Jacksonville’s secondary is beatable. The Jaguars rank 17th in dropback EPA and 28th in dropback success rate. If the Texans are going to win, it has to come through the air – that’s usually the case, but it’s especially true here given how ineffective Houston’s run game has been and how strong Jacksonville is against the run.
The Texans are dead last in offensive rush success rate and 29th in rush EPA per play. Their inability to establish anything on the ground has limited what they can do through the air, and now that burden falls on a backup quarterback. That becomes even tougher against a Jacksonville run defense that ranks second in rush success rate allowed, eighth in rush EPA allowed, and gives up just 3.8 yards per carry – the third-lowest mark in the league.
The sliver of hope for Houston, and really the identity of this team all season, has been the defense. The Texans rank second in both EPA per play and success rate allowed, while giving up just 4.7 yards per play, the third-fewest in the league.
Jacksonville’s offense has underperformed all year, sitting 20th in both EPA/play and success rate, and facing one of the best defenses in the league, in a division game where the opponent is desperate, isn’t exactly a get-right spot.
Trevor Lawrence has benefitted from a run game that ranks third in rush EPA and rush success rate, but Houston holds opposing backs to just 4.0 yards per carry. If the Jaguars need Lawrence to win this game through the air, that’s where things get dicey.
Out of 32 qualified quarterbacks this season (min. 160 plays), Lawrence ranks 30th in Completion Percentage Over Expected, 28th in success rate and 24th in adjusted EPA per play. He’s been flat-out bad and there’s no real reason to expect a sudden turnaround on Sunday.
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Picks & Props
So, how has all of this shaped the betting market?
The Texans originally opened as one-point favorites with a total of 39.5. Once the news broke that Stroud would be out, the line flipped to Jacksonville -1, and the total dropped to 37.5.
This game is tough to assess. My first instinct would be to look under the total, but the line has already dropped a couple of points from an already low number. And while I get the argument for taking Jacksonville at a short price against a backup quarterback, Houston’s defensive strength – combined with Lawrence’s struggles – makes it hard to back them with confidence.
However, I do have an official play in the prop market.
The weakness in Jacksonville’s defense is clearly the secondary. The Jags rank 28th in dropback success rate, 28th in pass attempts allowed per game (37), 27th in passing yards allowed (249.3), and 25th in completions allowed (23.5).
So I’m buying low on Davis Mills and taking him to throw over 209.5 passing yards.
Houston has shown they’re comfortable letting him throw, he’s been in the system for years and with how ineffective the Texans’ run game is, they won’t have much of a choice but to lean on the passing attack and target the weaker area of Jacksonville’s defense.
Definitely didn’t expect to be handicapping Davis Mills props this season, but here we are.
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