Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos
If you miss the gritty, hard-nosed NFL of the old days, this might be the game for you in Week 9. The total is set at just 39.5 for this matchup between the Houston Texans (3-4) and Denver Broncos (6-2). The spread slightly favors C.J. Stroud and company by 1.5 points, even with Bo Nix and the Broncos riding a five-game win streak.
Let’s explore how these teams match up and how to approach this game from a betting perspective with our Houston Texans vs. Denver Broncos preview and picks.
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Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos NFL Betting Insights
Can C.J. Stroud keep his rhythm going against one of the league’s premier defenses?
Texans vs Broncos Preview
When you have two defenses like these, it’s no surprise the total is so low. The Texans rank first in both EPA per play and yards per game (266.9) and also sit fourth in success rate. Their adversary is first in success rate allowed, fifth in yards per game (281.4) and seventh in EPA per play.
There are some major injury concerns that could impact scoring in this game, though. Denver cornerback Pat Surtain is doubtful, while Texans wide receiver Nico Collins is questionable after missing last week’s game. Tight end Dalton Schultz is also questionable after sitting out Wednesday’s practice.
While being without Surtain is far from ideal, Denver can still make up for the slack through its trenches. The Broncos have become the first team in NFL history to record 35+ sacks while allowing 10 or fewer sacks through their first eight games of a season.
We could go on and on about these defenses, but at the end of the day, the difference will be made on the offensive side of the ball – specifically through quarterback play.
Stroud holds the upper hand statistically, ranking 11th in success rate, 13th in EPA per play and 16th in CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected). Nix, on the other hand, ranks 24th, 16th and 24th in those same categories.
I never bought into the Bo Nix hype that much of the public tried to sell this past offseason – and I still refuse to. He’s gotten by with help from a stellar defense and his mobility, but as a passer, I’m not sold. His advanced numbers back that up.
Denver’s offense also leans heavily on its backfield. The Broncos rank sixth in offensive rush EPA per play and 16th in success rate. The duo of J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey has been productive, but they could be slowed by a Houston front seven allowing fewer than four yards per carry. If the ground game stalls, Denver will have to rely on a passing attack that ranks just 27th in dropback success rate and 15th in EPA per pass.
Houston’s ground game doesn’t bring much to the table either. The Texans rank dead last in rush success rate and now face a run defense also allowing under four yards per carry. The difference, though, is Stroud. Over his past four games, he’s led Houston to three wins while completing 72% of his passes for 256 yards per game with a 9–2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Stroud is settling in, and if he gets his top receiver back against a Denver defense missing its best corner, that’s another edge in Houston’s favor.
Houston vs Denver Picks & Props
The market has gradually shifted toward the home team, and I can’t argue against it. I’d rather lay the short number with Houston and the better quarterback than rely on the unstable Bo Nix. The Texans also hold the advantage on the injury front.
That said, I am backing Nix in one way – his legs. I’ll be betting Nix over 18.5 rushing yards (-112) on Sunday.
We know how effective Nix can be when he takes off. He doesn’t scramble as often as you might think, but when he does, he’s efficient – averaging five carries for 21.4 yards per game (4.4 per rush). As stout as Houston’s run defense is, it’s shown some vulnerability against quarterback scrambles.
The Texans haven’t faced a true dual-threat QB like Nix. Opponents are averaging just 2.3 scrambles per game against them, but those runs have gone for 12.3 yards per attempt.
Some of those past quarterbacks – Baker Mayfield, Cameron Ward and Mac Jones – all eclipsed 20 rushing yards against them. None of the three ran more than three times and still got there. Imagine what Nix can do with if he meets his game average of five rushing attempts on Sunday. He’ll be under pressure from one of the league’s most relentless defenses, which should naturally lead to more opportunities to run.
I feel more confident in that prop than I do with a side, so that’ll be my only official play for this matchup.
Best Bet: Bo Nix Over 18.5 Rush Yards (-112)
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